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Terrorist Competition

Tyler Cowen takes up my tongue-in-cheek challenge to discuss whether we're better off or worse off in a world of competing jihadi firms rather than a single al-Qaeda monopolist. My take on this (roughly Tyler's) is that you'll probably see more attacks under a competitive model, but that you're more likely to see a nuclear attack under a monopolist model. Thus, all things considered, we're better off with competition.

October 6, 2004 | Permalink

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Comments

Tyler Cowen takes up my tongue-in-cheek challenge to discuss whether we're better off or worse off in a world of competing jihadi firms rather than a single al-Qaeda monopolist.

There were competing firms before; Monotheism and Holy War from some accounts was an al-Qaeda rival, not an affiliate. The various Palestinian factions have all been competing for quite some time, as have non-Sunni international Islamist groups like Hamas.

Posted by: cmdicely | Oct 6, 2004 2:10:10 AM

What we really need, in order to know which is more dangerous, is for the Iowa Electronic Markets to pick up the question, given that financial markets are always, absolutely, perfect futures predictors.

Posted by: Nick Simmonds | Oct 6, 2004 2:23:54 AM

He stipulates the problem states out from the baseline of "all other things being equal" and then assumes that al-Queda is/was a monopoly and that a non-monopoly situation will result in terrorists killing each other.

I could argue from the point of view of al-Queda being very large that they would more likely to have the capability to deliver a nuke, however, I think that if they are competing, they are going to do so on the basis of how many Americans they can kill. They'll only kill each other when they aren't any Americans around to kill.

Therefore I would argue that an al-Queda monoply has a better chance of acquiring a nuke to use, but competition means more attacks, not fewer. And the more attacks the better the chance of delivering a nuke.

ash
['The question is academic.']

Posted by: ash | Oct 6, 2004 5:11:44 AM

Ash - remember, the primary goal of terrorists isn't to kill Americans. The biggest casualties of terrorism (even outside Iraq and Afghanistan, which are best excluded from the count for obvious reasons) have been ordinary Muslims - in Indonesia, Turkey, the Philippines, Algeria, Saudi, etc.

The main goal of most Islamist terrorists is to turn secular-ish Muslim states into theocratic Muslim states, not to topple the Great Satan. This is why the Iraq war was such a good idea.

Posted by: john b | Oct 6, 2004 6:17:27 AM

"The main goal of most Islamist terrorists is to turn secular-ish Muslim states into theocratic Muslim states, not to topple the Great Satan. This is why the Iraq war was such a good idea."

I think your first statement is probably right. I'm baffled how this leads to the second.

To most people, butter tastes better than used motor oil. This is why it was such a good idea for Bush's chef to serve garlic angel-food cake instead of beef bourgnione.

Posted by: J Thomas | Oct 6, 2004 8:02:01 AM

Sorry. The idea was to sarcastically imply that making America appear even more Greatly Satanic in order to topple a secular-ish Muslim state might not be the best way to fight the War on Terror.

Posted by: john b | Oct 6, 2004 8:28:04 AM

I've got a couple of problems with this argument.

First, all things are not equal, and whether the proliferation of "me too" fundamentalist terrorist organizations is a cause or effect, it is axiomatic that we have more terrorists now than we did prior to the Great Flypaper War. But you knew that.

Second, can we really be sure that a single large organization would be more likely to acquire nukes? If it's simply a question of getting enough money to Pakistan, that may be the case. With UBL's personal wealth estimated in the hundreds of millions, though, it's hard to see that they couldn't have already gathered the cash to purchase a pre-made device. I'd imagine the material for a low-tech "dirty" bomb is easier to get, and cheaper to boot.

Operation Flypaper has not only increased the number of "terrorist organizations," it has increased the total number of people and other assets at their disposal. Assume that a reasonable subset of them agree that getting nuclear material would advance their cause. Isn't it more likely that multiple organizations taking diverse approaches with increased resouces and numbers of followers would be more likely to succeed than a single entity?

I think if one is to argue otherwise, one assumes that getting such material requires accretions of either (a) cash or other resouces or (b) logistical abilities that could only be gathered by a single, strong entity. Is that the case?

Posted by: tinman | Oct 6, 2004 8:58:41 AM

The smaller, newer jihadist startups in Iraq seem to compete for members and funding by staging newsworthy attacks, and then claiming credit for those attacks. That suggests that the more groups there are, the more likely they are to compete for primacy by doing something really nasty and spectacular.

A suitcase bomb nuclear attack is much easier to accomplish, from a planning point of view, than something like the 9/11 attacks. You need fewer people, and less coordination and training. Thus, the vaunted "global reach" and training capabilities of al-Qaeda don't seem to be an important factor.

The main requirements for carrying out nuclear terrorism would appear to be (i) money, (ii) connections, and (ii) more money. I suspect there is more than enough money available to support an even larger movement, so competition won't damage the overall ability of the terrorist "industry" to carry out nuclear attacks.

Posted by: Dan Kervick | Oct 6, 2004 9:35:26 AM

"The main requirements for carrying out nuclear terrorism"

I don't know that this been thought thru enough. Are the byproducts, the waste and shrapnel of a nuclear device traceable? In other words, can we chemically determine where the plutonium in a bomb, after the explosion, was derived from? This actually might be classified. (I know what the scare meme is.)

If this is determinable, then Pakistan, NK, Iran will much more careful about handing out nukes, and will wait til they have a good deterrent in place before doing so. Money and ideology alone will be insufficient.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Oct 6, 2004 9:45:30 AM

>First, all things are not equal

Agreed.

>Second, can we really be sure that a single large organization would be more likely to acquire nukes?

The main issue isn't having the cash to buy the nukes. The main issue is having enough sophisticated people to steal one in the first place (no government, including NK, is give the things away) then having the logistical network to deliver the thing without getting caught. (By which I mean redirecting suspicion to another country instead of having it fall on the place you are located in. But I also mean being able to successfully deliver the thing.)

>I'd imagine the material for a low-tech "dirty" bomb is easier to get, and cheaper to boot.

It might be, but a "dirty bomb" (some radioactives attached to some chemical explosives) should be classed with chemical weapons in terms of damage and kills. Something in the range of 0-500 deaths. A real nuke is in an entirely different class. (And a dirty nuke is much much worse.)

I would presume, when we're talking about delivering a nuke, we're talking about detonating a working atomic or fusion weapon.

The problem is that a government with a death wish and a nuclear-industrial complex (since they've already got the bomb) would find it very easy to deliver a nuke to the US, even if it can't deliver it by missle. They have the resources to buy the oil tanker or the aircraft or the 18-wheeler or maybe the cargo ship/cruise missle combo and still hide their intent until the thing is delivered. They also have the resources to cover their tracks.

Terrorists just don't have the infrastructure to do that. Not without the collusion of large elements of a real government (say, the ISI?) OR lots of pure dumb luck. (How to get a pony nuke from Kazazhistan to the US...hrmmm. Cesna? Guess they won't be filing a flight plan.)

Of course, if you have enough people trying, there's a better chance of someone hitting a string of pure dumb luck. Just like your chances of hitting the lottery are very very small, but increase with the more tickets you buy.

Not to mention, the more terrorists (is there a fixed number of terrorists?) the larger any particular organization is going to be.

(Of course, there's a natural upper (but relative) limit to a terrorist organization. If it gets large enough, it becomes a government. As in the Taliban.)


ash
['Whereupon, it has a return address.']

Posted by: ash | Oct 6, 2004 9:54:05 AM

If you have a nuclear weapon, and wish to deliver it to the US, all that you need is some cash, a plausible front company, and a directory of shipping/logistics firms. That's it.

Avoiding massive retaliation, of course, is another matter. If the bomb is traced back to a country, its deterrent won't matter that much. IMHO, if it's not tracked back to Iran or N. Korea or Pakistan, the US would still attack at least the first two countries.

Posted by: Barry | Oct 6, 2004 10:05:30 AM

The common thread here seems to be an assertion that there are more terroists now than there were prior to the war in Iraq. Where do you think these people were going after they left the training camps in Afgahnistan- home to heard camels? They have been trained and have taken their training to train others. That is why it is critical to take the fight to them, not wait for it to come here. Clinton screwed that up more than anybody could have. He completely failed to take action. The ability of these groups to aquire and deliver a nuke is greatly reduced as long as there is pressure on them. A person who is truely willing to die to make a statement is a very hard enemy to control. As long as there are extremists out there with that mindset we will have to be on the edge of our seats.

When it comes to Nukes - your absolutely right - North Korea and Iran are problem. The bigger problem is the terrorist support they provide. Iran developing a nuclear "energy" program is one of the scariest thing I can imagine.

Posted by: Kevin | Oct 6, 2004 11:45:14 AM

"When it comes to Nukes - your absolutely right - North Korea and Iran are problem."

When it comes to nukes in the hands of Islamic terrorists, N Korea & Iran are NOT the problem.

IMHO, Russia & its spinoff republics (and perhaps India) are the problem.

Not because of anything the States themselves might do, but because of the greed of individuals who might be persuaded by a few million dollars to do the "unthinkable".

Posted by: evan | Oct 6, 2004 7:00:07 PM

To answer Bob McManus's question:


Are the byproducts, the waste and shrapnel of a nuclear device traceable? In other words, can we chemically determine where the plutonium in a bomb, after the explosion, was derived from? This actually might be classified.

The short answer is basically yes.

The longer answer at a not-particularly-science-intensive level can be found in:

1) William J. Broad " Addressing the Unthinkable, U.S. Revives Study of Fallout"
The New York Times (Friday, March 19, 2004, Page A2), which is available from the Times archive at:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F60812F938550C7A8DDDAA0894DC404482&incamp=archive:search

Since the Times gives only a paltry 50 words for free in its archive and since the whole article is over 1600 words, I feel legally and ethically able to quote a bit of the introduction.

To cope with the possibility that terrorists might someday detonate a nuclear bomb on American soil, the federal government is reviving a scientific art that was lost after the cold war: fallout analysis.

The goal, officials and weapons experts both inside and outside the government say, is to figure out quickly who exploded such a bomb and where the nuclear material came from. That would clarify the options for striking back. Officials also hope that if terrorists know a bomb can be traced, they will be less likely to try to use one.

In a secretive effort that began five years ago but whose outlines are just now becoming known, the government's network of weapons laboratories is hiring new experts, calling in old-timers, dusting off data and holding drills to sharpen its ability to do what is euphemistically known as nuclear attribution or post-event forensics.

It is also building robots that would go into an affected area and take radioactive samples, as well as field stations that would dilute dangerous material for safe shipment to national laboratories.

''Certainly, there's a frightening aspect in all of this,'' said Charles B. Richardson, the project leader for nuclear identification research at the Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque. ''But we're putting all these things together with the hope that they'll never have to be used.''

Most experts say the risk of a terrorist nuclear attack is low but no longer unthinkable, given the spread of material and know-how around the globe.

Dr. Jay C. Davis, a nuclear scientist who in 1999 helped found the Pentagon's part of the governmentwide effort, said the precautions would ''pay huge dividends after the event, both in terms of the ability to identify the bad actor and in terms of establishing public trust.''

In a nuclear crisis, Dr. Davis added, the identification effort would be vital in ''dealing with the desire for instant gratification through vengeance.''

Vice President Dick Cheney was briefed on the program last fall, Dr. Davis said. The National Security Council coordinates the work among a dozen or so federal agencies.

The basic science relies on faint clues -- tiny bits of radioactive fallout, often invisible to the eye, that under intense scrutiny can reveal distinctive signatures. Such wisps of evidence can help identify an exploded bomb's type and characteristics, including its country of origin.

Solving the nuclear whodunit could take much more information, including hard-won law enforcement clues and good intelligence on foreign nuclear arms and terrorist groups. For that reason, several federal agencies are involved in the program, among them the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

The program addresses true nuclear weapons as well as so-called dirty bombs, ordinary explosives that spew radioactive debris.


Moreover, that "Dr. Jay C. Davis" quoted in the above article penned the following short piece which is available online for free:

2) Jay C. Davis, "The Attribution of WMD Events" Journal of Homeland Security (April 2003), available for free at:

http://www.homelandsecurity.org/journal/articles/displayArticle.asp?article=89

If you're hungry for more, I hope to be able to post something at a sort of Scientific American level at my blog in the near future:

http://williamkaminsky.typepad.com

[I'm a physics PhD student at MIT, and as such have an intense interest in that Pandora's Box my intellectual forebears opened.]

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