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Nukes as Propaganda

My guess is that the experts quoted by The New York Times are right, and Putin's big talk about new nukes is more for domestic political consumption -- designed to bolster a sense of Russian greatness and nationalism -- than for any actual national security purpose. I wish there was more attention paid to this dimension of nuclear programs in India, Pakistan, Iran, Brazil (where something odd is going on), and other places. The trouble is that this sort of thing -- including the desire of non-nuclear rich democracies like Germany, Japan, and South Korea to maintain the technical capacity to go nuclear on short notice -- winds up having spillovers into actual policy. Pakistani nukes put pressure on Iran. Iranian nukes would put pressure on other Middle Eastern countries to go nuclear. German resistance to a stronger NPT makes it harder to deal with Iran.

The United States could use a clever plan for breaking -- or at least attenuating -- the perceived link between possession of a strategic weapons capacity and a country's status as a major power. In the pre-1914 era, a lot of tensions got created in Europe by Germany's desire for more colonies and sea power. The irony was that there was no good reason of national interest for Germany to seek colonies. But the Kaiser and others perceived that, as a great nation, Germany deserved her "place in the sun" and that getting it in the context prevalent at the time meant she needed colonies. Similar sentiments in the USA got us into trouble in the Phillipines. Perception can become reality, and reality can become dangerous. A non-nuclear method of increasing the national self-esteem of the large (either population-wise or economically) non-nuclear countries could do a lot of good.

November 17, 2004 | Permalink

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Comments

> The United States could use a clever plan
> for breaking -- or at least attenuating --
> the perceived link between possession of a
> strategic weapons capacity and a country's
> status as a major power.

Any thoughts on what that plan might be? Because as far as I can see the invasion of Iraq cemeted that link for the next 100 years.

Why wouldn't citizens of Iran not consider it treason for their leaders NOT to pursue nuclear weapons? W has just shown them what the fate is of countries which do not posses them.

Cranky

Posted by: Cranky Observer | Nov 17, 2004 1:48:28 PM

I agree with Cranky. At this point, it has a lot less to do with national self-esteem, and a lot more to do with attenuating the likelihood that the US will invade (however small that likelihood is to begin with). Seriously - couldn't you reasonably argue that any sufficiently-sized government not now pursuing nuclear weapons was, in fact, incompetent?

Is this President great, or what?

Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Nov 17, 2004 1:54:04 PM

A non-nuclear method of increasing the national self-esteem of the large (either population-wise or economically) non-nuclear countries could do a lot of good.

Such as Security Council expansion? Any other ideas?

Posted by: P.B. Almeida | Nov 17, 2004 1:54:29 PM

How about a marketing campaign with slogans like "Scientists in developing countries are fucking awesome and they can accomplish anything they set their minds to, so there's no need to prove it to us by building nuclear weapons."

Needs some work, I know, but you get the idea.

Posted by: praktike | Nov 17, 2004 1:54:38 PM

What Cranky said. Also, bear in mind that while newer, better nukes might have no real security purpose for Russia, the same it's not necessarily true for Pakistan, India, Brazil, etc. The fact that nuclear weapons are the only real equalizer against the USA overwhelming conventional advantage provides a good reason for pursuing them.

Posted by: Carlos | Nov 17, 2004 1:58:34 PM

Yeah, give 'em all a Security Council seat and veto. The more f'ed up that place is, the better.

Posted by: Al | Nov 17, 2004 1:58:59 PM

How about if the US cleverly renounces its new program for building next-generation "usable nukes" and cleverly embraces its obligations under the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, thus cleverly eliminating the motive - whether rooted in genuine security concerns or a mere psychological drive for prestige - of nuclear powers to build their own next-generation weapons to keep up with the US, and thus cleverly re-introducing the global stigma surrounding nuclear waepons.

With some genuine leadership we might stimulate an outbreak of global cleverness.

Posted by: Dan Kervick | Nov 17, 2004 2:11:02 PM

Seriously - couldn't you reasonably argue that any sufficiently-sized government not now pursuing nuclear weapons was, in fact, incompetent?

'Sufficiently-sized government' is a good qualifier. The rest, I suppose, are concentrating on microbes. Not as glamorous, but effective.

Posted by: abb1 | Nov 17, 2004 2:15:13 PM

Well, from what I can see, the new Russian nukes are intended to trump any missile defense system that the US might deploy. That's not just a matter of Russian domestc politics. The US in sole possession of a missile defense system that actually worked, and could successfully defend the US against nuclear attack by a major power like Russia, would be intolerable to the rest of the world--it would mean that we could destroy whoever we wanted with impunity. Perhaps fortunately, despite our propaganda, we don't actually have a missile defense system that is anywhere near working . . .

Posted by: rea | Nov 17, 2004 2:47:17 PM

Dan Kervick is dead right. As long as you (the USA) go around breaking your own obligations to disarm, building new nukes instead, and threaten everybody like some drunken sailor, you only create more incentive for others to get nuclear insurance.

As for the link between having nukes and feeling important, Matt should ask himself where so much of the current US swagger is coming from. He is projecting unto others what his own country does and feels. For if the objective were just to feel more important, countries like Brazil or Iran would have got their nukes long since.

No, the new destabilising element is an aggressively warmongering, apocalyptic, irrational US administration.

Posted by: Harrovian | Nov 17, 2004 2:55:36 PM

Are you crazy?

This is just like the cold war. You liberals tried to say that inferior Soviet technology and a paper tiger Soviet economy in the 60s and 70s meant the USSR really had no rational hope of ever seriously challenging the US military. You still think the Berlin wall came down because of falling oil prices, overreach in Afghanistan, and the above factors?

But you're wrong! As usual! About everything! Evil people are out to get us! We must kill them first. We must kill evil. Evil must be stopped. Evil people want to do bad things, dummies. Thank god we have Leaders who understand this, including our new Dr. Secretary of State, Dr. Condoleeza Dr. Rice. Chew on that, you disrespectful America haters.

Posted by: Free Lover of Freedom and Free Liberty | Nov 17, 2004 3:01:43 PM

How about a new multi-national space race? "Big Players can get an astronaut to low-earth orbit." Wouldn't that be a good direction in which to divert everyone's efforts?

Posted by: ChrisHibbert | Nov 17, 2004 4:22:30 PM

Nukes? Ahh, no worries. At least not now that we have Stephen Hadley as NSA. I mean, jeeze, Hadley's almost as passionate about missile defense as he is about ass kissing.

Posted by: Bragan | Nov 17, 2004 4:32:50 PM

I like the Space Race idea as well. On top of the 'national pride' benefit, an ongoing space program could bring about great technological benefits and fairly significant economic ones.

Additionally, just by virtue of geography, it should be a fairly easy sell to Brazil, Indonesia, or even (though too late from an anti-proliferation perspective) India--equatorial population bombs likely to buy into national greatness mythology for good or for ill.

Posted by: Michael | Nov 17, 2004 5:29:38 PM

No, the new destabilising element is an aggressively warmongering, apocalyptic, irrational US administration.

I'd like to second Matt's comment about Brazil. If we can remember back to the ancient history of the 1980s, when most of South America was emerging from authoritarian regimes, the Brazil-Argentina non-proliferation pact was being touted as a model for international conflict resolution and peaceful coexistence.

These are two countries whose militaries really don't like each other. Even though they haven't fought a real war since the early 1800s, each conducts most of its wargaming with the other cast as the enemy. Their nuclear race in the 1960s and '70s ranks up there with the India-Pakistan race as one of the world's most destabilizing.

I don't think the US is wholly to blame for Brazil's apparent new interest in voiding its treaty obligations with Argentina and returning to a nuclear program. Internal politics, most probably involving a tit-for-tat transaction between the anti-Communist military and the socialist Workers Party government, almost certainly has a lot more to do with it.

Nevertheless, an effective anti-proliferation policy by the US, rather than the gung-ho "anti-WMD" posturing of the Bush administration, would have left us better situated to address the real danger that the Southern Cone could collapse back into a nuclear arms race.

Chalk up another success for Condi and Co., just as she's about to assume as Sec. of State....

Posted by: litho | Nov 17, 2004 5:33:42 PM

As a brit,i have to agree that any power that can afford it should , for its own protection, be developing nuclear weapons.

After all you never know when the US might decide that's its your citizens they should be shooting and torturing.

Posted by: kenny | Nov 17, 2004 6:04:56 PM

Brazil has new 'levitating' centrifuges online, and wont let the IAEC in to look at them, but swears they are only hiding new technology, not nuclear capability.
suspect the technology came from Pak, or other rogue nation, but Brazil, being very patriotic, claims to have invented this new technology that it wont let anyone see.

Posted by: jgh | Nov 17, 2004 6:46:49 PM

My brother and I have been discussing how we can get a movement started up here in Canada to develop (or publicly acknowledge we have and make more) nukes. Given that a third of young Canadians view the US as the biggest threat in the world we think it might be pretty doable. The interesting thing is that while most people we have talked to are still pretty cold about us getting nukes not a single one has challanged the idea we might get invaded by the US for our water and energy.

Reducing proliferation WOULD have been easy had the US people rejected a war mongering pseudo fascist. Since they didn't I expect every major and most minor countries to develop them.

Posted by: Sus_Ano | Nov 17, 2004 11:41:06 PM

Maybe Venezuela will arm itself before the right-wing freaks invade that country too.

Posted by: kaboom | Nov 18, 2004 6:53:15 AM

Can we send some Harvard grads to these countries? Clearly we have more than we need.

Posted by: Tobey | Nov 18, 2004 11:12:16 AM

"As a brit,i have to agree that any power that can afford it should , for its own protection, be developing nuclear weapons."

Even if that power is an Islamist theocracy in which women are hanged for adultery and 14-year old boys are lashed to death for breaking their Ramadan fasts early? Alrighty then.

Posted by: Abiola Lapite | Nov 18, 2004 1:01:25 PM

Even if it's a Christian plutocracy where you can be sentenced to years of daily gang-rape for smoking a wrong kind of cigarette.

Posted by: abb1 | Nov 18, 2004 1:28:18 PM

Mr. Putin is "talking to Buncombe". Development of mobile versions of Topol 25/Topol M missiles was well underway while the Soviet Union was still alive. The large number of warheads these things can carry (estimates vary; at a minimum 10 to 12) would swamp any conceivable ballistic missile defense at present, even leaving aside improved penetration aids (metal chaff & balloons, jammers, flares, etc.).

Also, it's a warning to any emerging nuclear states that in return for flinging a few laboriously acquired single-warhead missiles at Russia, they will be saturation-nuked by only a fraction of Russian missile capability.

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