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Modeling Tax Reform

It appears that the Bush administration has abandonned the goal of comprehensive tax reform, which is too bad, since I had this post in the works featuring charts to illustrate a formal model. Anyways, I've stuck what I had below, since I think it's interesting.

Consider a naive theory of tax policy debate where the only variable is progressivity versus flatness. Assign an arbitrary scale such that the status quo has a value of 20 on the flatness scale where higher numbers indicate greater flatness. Let's say also that public opinion prefers a system with a flatness value of zero. This does not guarantee that the public will get what it wants, but it should constrain the current government's ability to change things. In particular, a government that proposes a change that makes things worse from the perspective of the electorate will suffer for its sins at the polls. Consider the following diagram:

Naive2

The black line in the center of the image represents the public's preferred policy on the progressive-flat scale. The black line to the right of the center represents the status quo. The green-shaded area represents all the territory that is closer than the status quo to the public's preferred outcome. If a left-wing government is in power, it will be able to make the system more progressive. Indeed, it will be able to get away with making the system more progressive than the public wants, simply by leaving it flat enough that the deviation from the preferred position is smaller than is the current deviation. Somewhat counterintuitively, the flatter the status quo system is, the further a left-wing government will be able to push it in the direction of progressivity. A rightwing government, conversely, won't be able to change things at all because the status quo is already flatter than the public would like to see.

But this is a very simple unidimensional model of the policy space. Consider that in addition to flatness versus progressivity, the tax code also has other attributes. Notably, tax codes can be more-or-less complex, in the sense of possessing loopholes, deductions, credits, etc. Now consider the following two dimensional image:

Complex

On this diagram, as you move to the right the system gets flatter, and if you move toward the bottom, the system gets simpler. The origin in the middle represents the public's preferred policy, while the black dot in the upper-right quadrant represents the status quo -- somewhat flatter than the public prefers and far more complicated. The shaded green area once again represents the range of outcomes that the public would prefer to the status quo. This time, however, the move toward a two-dimensional model creates a big difference. The public's indifference curve is circular, and since the status quo is so far from the desired outcome along the complexity axis, the government has a very wide range of proposals it could put forward without angering the public.

A wide range, that is, provided that it's prepared to make the tax code simpler. Even if the government doesn't really care about the simplicity issue, it would still be a good idea to at least pretend to care. The two diagonal lines emanating from the status quo dot represent one-to-one tradeoffs of increased simplicity for changes along the progressivity axis. A leftwing government could choose any point northwest of the southwest pointing line and achieve more in terms of greater progressivity than in terms of simplification. Conversely, a rightwing government could pick a point northeast of the southeast pointing line and achieve more in terms of greater flatness than in terms of simplification. Thus, by demonstrating a willingness to address the public's concern with tax code complexity, a rightwing government can simultaneously make the code less progressive than it already is even if the public would prefer the code to become more progressive. And, of course, you could change the assumptions around and the same thing would work for a leftwing government.

One important thing to note here is the importance of controlling the agenda. If rightwingers propose a simplification-and-flattening of the code, liberals will seize upon the flattening aspect, note its unpopularity, and try to campaign against it. But since the debate will be centered around the rightwing proposal and people will prefer the rightwing proposal to the status quo, the liberals will get beaten. Conversely, if liberals had gotten ahead of the curve, made a simplification-and-progressivification of the tax code the center of the debate, they would have won.

Thus, even if you don't think simplication issues are important compared to distributive ones, you ought to pretend.

December 31, 2004 | Permalink

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If rightwingers propose a simplification-and-flattening of the code, liberals will seize upon the flattening aspect, note its unpopularity, and try to campaign against it. But since the debate will be centered around the rightwing proposal and people will prefer the rightwing proposal to the status quo, the liberals will get beaten.

Of course, if rightwingers propose a "simplification-and-flattening" of the code, you can usually be assured that the simplification is pure fantasy (they talk about complexities that will be taken away and don't publicize the new complexities that will be added).

Posted by: cmdicely | Dec 31, 2004 12:16:43 PM

MY: I understand your point that you can get closer to the origin even while moving farther away on one of the axes.

But just as a side-note, you're assuming that voters want the system to be more progressive. Judging by what I've seen these last four years, the voters seem to want it backwards-progressive: the highest tax *rate* on the poor, the lowest tax *rate* on the rich.

Posted by: Josh Yelon | Dec 31, 2004 12:19:56 PM

Josh, I don't think the fact that that's the direction things have gone is evidence for your claim that that's what the public wants out of it's tax policy. Public opinion suggests that voters are by and large rather suspicious of the the Bush administration's tax policy as a whole. They vote for him for other reasons.

Posted by: djw | Dec 31, 2004 12:28:10 PM

People want tax simplification in theory. But it is hard to get rid of big loopholes like the morgage deduction. Revenue enhancement through tax simplification can be as hard as budget cuts. Reagan simplified the tax code, but he used huge cuts in the highest marginal rates as the sweetener.

I would be interested to see whether the rise of income tax preperation software affects the debate over tax simplification. The tax code is complicated, but people aren't staying up all night in fustration anymore.

Posted by: joe o | Dec 31, 2004 12:33:25 PM

Of course, if rightwingers propose a "simplification-and-flattening" of the code, you can usually be assured that the simplification is pure fantasy...

Why, they could make it simpler by replacing income tax with VAT or sales tax. No forms to file at all, unless you're a business.

Posted by: abb1 | Dec 31, 2004 12:58:09 PM

I'd like to see some graphical file format reform. Damnit matt, use PNG instead of JPG for computer generated graphics, you won't get that crappy swirly junk (technically called "wavelet artifacts") where two colors meet.

Posted by: dbt | Dec 31, 2004 1:29:17 PM

Hell, for a schematic graph with three colors, a GIF would probably be better than a JPEG.

What I want to figure out is, how did the Republicans manage to turn the estate tax -- a fairly simple (nonexistent for most people, only paid once a generation (rather than once a year) for those who do pay it), quite progressive tax? It wouldn't be two hard to understand if it were something slipped quietly under the door like Canadian lumber restrictions, in which concentrated minorities benefit by pulling the wool over the eyes of a diffuse majority. However, abolishing the estate tax was a centerpiece of Republican populism, campaigned for very publicly, not just a quiet helping-hand to special interests like trade restrictions or pork.

How did that happen?

Posted by: Julian Elson | Jan 1, 2005 1:19:29 PM

This is a really well said point about an interesting issue, and one of the few that discuss the added complexity of a 2-d analysis.

The election results in a 3-d analysis of War, Tax Cuts, and Morals would also be interesting, I think.
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