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More Unity

With two posts up on unity and Social Security already, several people have pointed me to today's Los Angeles Times writeup, but with different interpretations.

Jesse Lee of the Stakeholder says it's unity in action. David Sirota, meanwhile, who's quoted in the piece thinks he saw Will Marshall creeping off the reservation:

Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, a centrist Democratic think tank, said it would be damaging for the party to be seen as hostile to "reform."

"Having simply tried to demonize privatization in three successive elections and not having tremendous results, they have to try something better," Marshall said. "They have to develop a progressive alternative for reforming Social Security."

Obviously, there's plenty of bad blood between Sirota and the DLC at this point, so it's natural that David's suspicious. The quote sitting in front of me looks like an offer of tactical advice (advice I agreed with as of three weeks ago, disagreed with vehemently as of one week ago, and now think may be right again) rather than a prelude to backstabbing. But if they do stab, suffice it to say that I won't be defending them from that charge. Just a little while later, though, Marshall Whittman seems to speak up in favor of the Democratic position:
Marshall Wittmann, an analyst at the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, said Democratic leaders were trying to avoid being the first to propose the painful measures -- benefit cuts or tax increases -- that most analysts believe will be needed to shore up Social Security.

"The White House is trying to maneuver Democrats into the position of doing the root canal work," said Wittmann. "Democrats are not going to play dentist."

The imagery of that characterization suggests that Whittman thinks Democrats are playing this right. We'll have to see where they ultimately come down -- hopefully on the right (i.e., left) side of things. I was also interested in the remarks of Maya MacGuineas, a certified abolitionist:
"Bush keeps doing things that are not particularly helpful for getting bipartisan support," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a watchdog group that supports overhauling Social Security.
This isn't the most important angle in the debate, but it is important to try and convince as many reformers who aren't harcore rightwing ideologues (i.e., people like MacGuineas) that Bush is to blame for failing to govern in a credibly bipartisan manner, and that whatever issues may or may not need to be resolved in the future can be put off until we have a better sense of what the problems really amount to and a more responsible administration to address them. I also like what I'm hearing from Dick Durbin:
"Message No. 1 to Americans: When it comes to Social Security, the sky is not falling," said the Senate's new assistant Democratic leader, Richard Durbin (D-Ill.). "There are people in this administration who have an agenda that is not friendly to Social Security."
Exactly. Message number one is that Social Security is healthy and successful. There is no crisis.

Last but by no means least, while the article largely approaches the issue from inside the rightwing frame that the media almost invariably uses when discussing Social Security, this piece at least shows an awareness that an alternate frame exists. That's progress, and I think it means that in today's sped-up media cycle it's not impossible to reframe even a big topic in just a few months. Keep working on it, and keep harrassing the press to get this right. Social Security will not go bankrupt no matter what. The SSA's predictions are very pessimistic, and even the GOP doesn't pretend to believe in them when discussing other issues. Even if their pessimistic predictions do come true, future checks will be larger in real terms than today's checks.

December 19, 2004 | Permalink

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» More Legislative Tactics from Bradford Plumer
Jeebus. Matt Yglesias is burning down the house on Social Security today. Anyways, this unity theme—that Democrats shouldn't give Republicans even a fig leaf of bipartisanship—is important. A few more points to add. [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 19, 2004 2:57:53 PM

» Democrats, Unity, and Social Security from Vox Baby
I think this is not a winning strategy for Democrats. Nothing scores worse with focus groups than denying that Social Security has a problem that needs to be fixed. And there's an old saying in Washington, "You can't beat something with nothing." [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 19, 2004 9:16:41 PM

Comments

"This isn't the most important angle in the debate, but it is important to try and convince as many reformers who aren't harcore rightwing ideologues (i.e., people like MacGuineas)"

--

Any one who thinks MacGuineas is not a right wing ideologe should check out her disingenious preformance on the News Hour-

http://gotv.blogspot.com/2004/12/news-hour-joins-social-security-hoax.html

Posted by: Alice Marshall | Dec 19, 2004 12:24:14 PM

The problem here is the same problem that exists with many MANY other issues. Bush Inc are NOT seen as two faced liars by the majority of the public. This allows him and assorted minions to offer bald faced lies. The media for a variety of reasons either offer their own supporting bald faced lies or at best offer "balanced coverage".

The frame that "there is no problem" only makes sense if you have pre-existing schemata that includes "what the president and his cronies say may not be true". Now the time to have established the far more critical frame "these guys lie - all the time" was during the last election. Since that didn't happen where ever possible the counter message of "there is no problem" needs to include explicit reference to things that people think are likely not true or questionable.

The tough thing here is cognitive bias - we tend to overattend to things that fit existing schema, and tune out information that does not. If you assume the president is a straight shooter and he says "there is a crisis" then hearing "there is no problem" sounds like the Dems are clueless. So until the Dems either have their own network or they start running ads with 30 seconds of Bush etc saying one thing at one time and then 30 sec of someone in the administration or on Fox saying the opposite I am not sure how much headway will be made.

One final note - fighting lost battles is lame but learning from them is not. Negative ads work. The Repubs run negative campaigns, they have had electoral success. Therefore negative ads work. Dems may not like the idea. Focus groups might say they hate them just like focus group members will say they all go to church and never look at pornography. But that doesn't matter, this is a gun fight and until the Dems stop bringing knives they are going to keep losing.

Posted by: SusAno | Dec 19, 2004 2:40:07 PM

SusAno, until I got to the bottom I though I was reading John Emerson. Which is high praise from me. Very good comment.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Dec 19, 2004 3:07:13 PM

And now read mine, it's shorter: most people are idiots, democratic system of government doesn't work.

Posted by: abb1 | Dec 19, 2004 3:49:00 PM

SusAno,

You make the same mistake in viewing the coming SS fight that many other progressives made:

The last big Washington fight was obviously the runup to the Iraq War. The key bit of info that people seem to be missing in making retrospective analyses of that fight is that it was a lost cause from the beginning.

The Iraq War was a done deal from early 2002. Thinking the Dems fought badly in being unable to stop an oncoming freight train misses the essential nature of that battle. The SS battle is something quite different.

Nostrums about not bringing knives to gunfights wouldn't have won the unwinnable fight over the Iraq War, and it won't win the upcoming SS battle.

The SS battle will be won by a two front effort, much like the GOP won the '93-'94 health care battle.

In that fight, there were two fronts. The Washington GOP, led by Bob Dole, fought a delaying and disruptive effort, while at the same time trying to appear interested in reform. At the same time, the health care industy ran an outside Washinton effort to influence the debate through ads and astroturf efforts.

If we are to win this fight, we will need a similar effort. The Washinton Dems, led by Harry Reid will need to obstruct legislation while not appearing to mindlessly be opposed to solving problems. At the same time, folks like AARP will need to do the outside Washinton efforts to create and mobilize opposition.

Harry Reid has a serious tightrope to walk. He must hold the Democratic caucus together, find some fissures in the Republican majority, publically oppose while privately obstructing, and play the grandmaster chess of the legislative process.

But while we are about to see the skills of Harry Reid put to test, make no mistake: the Dems alone cannot stop this abomination. We control none of the levers of power in Washington. Much like the healthcare industy did in '93-'94, the AARP and likeminded groups will have to do the heavy lifting.

Unlike the Iraq War, this is battle we can win if everyone does their jobs. But it's not going to be an easy task.

Posted by: Petey | Dec 19, 2004 3:59:46 PM

Whoa, Petey, this is an excellent analysis. And I am serious, no sarcasm.

I remember the '93 debate and advertisement campaign very well, it was exactly like you said.

But I highly doubt that the Democrats are capable of this 'unity' thing: coordinating the efforts. We'll see, but are you really optimistic?

Posted by: abb1 | Dec 19, 2004 4:10:52 PM

"But I highly doubt that the Democrats are capable of this 'unity' thing: coordinating the efforts. We'll see, but are you really optimistic?"

It's hard to tell how skillfully Reid is going to play his hand as good strategy necessitates playing possum until the WH puts an actual proposal on the table.

I'm cautiously optimistic. If it comes down to a fight, I think we'll win. They don't call it "the third rail" for nothing.

And as far as I'm concerned, the main variable isn't the Dems. It's Rove and the AARP.

If I were a betting man, I'd say it never comes down to a fight. I think the most likely outcome is that Rove backs off ahead of the shooting. He can get a face saving outcome by coming up with a plan that buys off the AARP by adding token private accounts on top of SS.

Policy-wise, I've got only minor problems with that. It wouldn't be very different from what Clinton proposed in the late 90's. Politics-wise, I wouldn't like it because it would help cement the GOP Congressional majorities in '06.

But it's definitely possible that hubris has clouded Rove's normal good political judgment, and that the WH will wade into a political quagmire.

And, of course, the best way of ensuring it never comes down to a fight is by preparing like hell for that fight...

Posted by: Petey | Dec 19, 2004 5:57:38 PM

Harry Reid has a serious tightrope to walk. He must hold the Democratic caucus together, find some fissures in the Republican majority, publically oppose while privately obstructing, and play the grandmaster chess of the legislative process...But while we are about to see the skills of Harry Reid put to test, make no mistake: the Dems alone cannot stop this abomination.

Coming from a different perspective, I'm not sure I share your pessimism (which for me would be optimism). Reid doesn't need to hold his caucus together because of the supermajority requirment. He can lose as many as, what, five or so senators and still maintain a filibuster. And that's assuming no Republicans defect. Even Republicans who might be inclined to support private accounts in general may balk at the extra borrowing. I can't imagine there will be overwhelming public support for the White House's plan; even if they manage to get opinion polls to indicate they've got majority support, my guess is at best it will be a slim majority, reflective of the red state-blue state divide. Not many blue state Democrats, and not even that many red state Democrats, for that matter, are going to feel that opposing privatization is politically risky. Senator Dorgan (D-ND) is about as Red State as you can get, and he's come out against the plan's outlines. I'm not optimtistic at this point about substantive reform of Social Security.

Posted by: P.B. Almeida | Dec 19, 2004 8:39:18 PM

"Reid doesn't need to hold his caucus together because of the supermajority requirment. He can lose as many as, what, five or so senators and still maintain a filibuster."

Make no mistake, along with the Presidency and House, 50 + 1 of the Senate can do whatever they want. If 50 + 1 of the Senate want to attach this to a reconciliation bill, they can. If 50 + 1 of the Senate want to suspend the filibuster rule for this, they can.

So there are two calculations: can the WH keep the McCain's and Snowe's of this world from defecting to maintain 50 votes for hardball passage, and can Reid keep the Conrad's and Lieberman's of this world from defecting to maintain 40 votes against normal passage.

And that's where the outside advertising and astroturf are going to come in. If the "mood o' the country" is in favor of SS crypto-destruction, Reid is going to find it difficult to keep his finger in the dike. And if the mood is against, the WH is going to find a very steep hill to climb.

Of course, without an actual WH proposal, the outcome really can't be gamed. If, as I think likely, the WH backs down and seeks a face saving compromise that leaves SS fully in place, they'll probably be able to pass some kind of bill.

---

"Coming from a different perspective, I'm not sure I share your pessimism (which for me would be optimism)."

I'm actually cautiously optimistic. As I've said, if there's a fight, I think we win. And I don't even think there's going to be a fight.

One of multiple reasons I think Rove is going to back down is that they've already lost DeLay. And unless they get the Terminator back on board, the whole shebang is DOA.

As a Democrat, I'm hoping the WH goes boldly forward with its vision of "reform". The briar patch is warm and cozy, Mr. President.

Posted by: Petey | Dec 20, 2004 12:21:03 AM

Matt, I'd be happy to accept your assurance if you'll put your money where your mouth is.

Promise that you'll never support a FICA tax increase or a general tax increase to shore up SS since there is obviously no problem.

If Democrats can make that solemn promise, and codify it somehow, I think we can move on to other things.

Posted by: Adam Herman | Dec 20, 2004 6:29:39 AM

"Promise that you'll never support a FICA tax increase or a general tax increase to shore up SS since there is obviously no problem."

Hmm. Doesn't this abandon the promise Reagan made? That we'd pay increased FICA taxes now and buy treasuries to cover the US debt, but in the future when the budget was balanced and Social Security was in need to help, those treasuries would be paid back and help maintain the viability of Social Security.

Unfortunately, because of fiscal mismanagement on the part of the neo-Republicans(i.e. Bush), the reality is that at some point in the future (about 18 years out) the general income tax is going to have to be increased, if we are to maintain present discretionary spending and pay back those debts.

So let me get this straight.

President Reagan made a promise.

You want to abandon that promise, but you want to pretend like you aren't doing something without honor. So you want Democrats to make a lame promise so you can place the blame on them instead?

Wow, talk about spitting on the grave of Reagan.

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