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Unrest In Egypt

Fascinating article found via the Aardvark.

February 3, 2005 | Permalink


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Further contributing to the rapid erosion of regime legitimacy is a recent series of abrupt policy overtures cementing economic ties with the US and Israel, on the heels of a puzzling yet unmistakable rapprochement between the Mubarak and Sharon governments.

Heh. So Bush has a master plan for democratization after all! Give so much support to Mubarak that the people flip out and depose him! What a foreign policy genius!

Posted by: JP | Feb 3, 2005 6:02:37 PM

I was struck by the exact same quote as JP, above. Think about it -- all that liberal pooh-poohing about how Bush coddles authoritarian regimes, and it was really reverse psychology all along. How do we get a real democracy in Saudi Arabia, Uzbekhistan, Russia, and Pakistan? Just keep telling everyone how much we love their leaders, and voila, popular uprising in no time.

Posted by: Anno-nymous | Feb 3, 2005 6:36:35 PM

Matt, you might want to read this WSJ piece, too.

Posted by: praktike | Feb 3, 2005 9:07:06 PM

I've been wondering what's going on behind the scenes with Israel and Egypt.

Egypt has just completed nearly completely Westernizing it's military and have added two divisions (all divisions now mechanized, nearly all tanks M1A1).

If Mubarak becomes seriously in trouble he may have another go round at '73 which is a seriously misunderstood war both here and in Israel. It's generally understood as a defeat against an Arab horde bent on annihilating the Israeli's. The plan at least for Egypt was just to retake the canal and that was it's weakness. They didn't want to leave the cover of their SAM sites across the border and while they were there they tore the IDF to shreds using infantry armed with sagger's and no one knew what to do because the Israeli military doctrine held that armor to armor war was what was going to happen.

However, staying in one spot and not developing from their initial success is what defeated them. The Israeli's were able to breach the line and cut off their supply line and that was the end of the party (well, actually they may not even have wanted to win straight out, getting the U.S. to give them money and get the Sinai back for them may have been the true goal all along). If there is another war it will develop.

Normally, I'd dismiss the idea out of hand, it's just not Mubarak's style but if his neck is on the line and he has nothing left to lose it's a way out.

Posted by: absynthe | Feb 4, 2005 11:35:01 AM

"nugatory rituals"? gah.

I don't think that's a concern for Mubarak, Absynthe, but him aside, the billion dollar question is, what might his successor/replacement/deposer do with a Modernized Military?

See also; Musharraf; Pakistan; nukes

Posted by: wrye | Feb 4, 2005 1:42:45 PM

See also; Musharraf; Pakistan; nukes

I'd rather see Pakistan go to Al Queda and give Osama the nukes than play around with another Arab-Israeli war (well, a state to state one).

The IDF is in shit shape, it's manned by a corrupt and sadistic crew who don't train to fight wars anymore, they train to beat up on unarmed arabushim. The Egyptians (whoever was leading them) would not repeat the mistake of '73 and would be headed hell to leather for Jerusalem and if they get there Sharon is going to try and pull the temple down on the rest of the world when he goes.

Fuck that. A nuclear Pakistan could possibly be detered. That old fat asshole committing suicide can't.

Posted by: absynthe | Feb 4, 2005 1:51:13 PM

Once more, Absy extends his streak - always wrong, never in doubt.

Posted by: Dick Eagleson | Feb 4, 2005 2:32:16 PM

What am I wrong about now?

Posted by: absynthe | Feb 4, 2005 3:13:11 PM

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