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What's Going On?

As an advocate, I'm very unenthusiastic about the idea of John Bolton serving as UN Ambassador and highly dubious of the merits of Paul Wolfowitz as World Bank chief. But beyond that, there's also the observer hat. Not "do I like these guys?" but "what's going on?" Kevin Drum thinks he sees:

On a PR level, though, the message Bush is sending is plain. A number of pundits inexplicably thought that Bush might settle down in his second term and try to run a more conciliatory, less strident administration, and it's pretty obvious that he's trying to make it crystal clear that he has no intention of doing this. Second term Bush will be no different from first term Bush, and don't you forget it.
That could be right, but I'm not so sure. Another way of looking at this is that both Wolfowitz and Bolton are being given jobs that are further away from the policymaking nerve center. Instead, they're being shipped out to institutions that the President doesn't think are important. Potentially, at least, what's going on here is that they're being kicked upstairs, and this is the way a man who doesn't like admitting to mistakes is admitting that he made mistakes. Even if this is right, these aren't measures I approve of, because I think the UN and the World Bank are important and there's every reason to think Wolfowitz and Bolton will ill-serve the interests of the United States and the world in those roles. Still, I think these could be bad moves that are part of an overall positive development. We won't really know until we get a look at who's appointed to replace Bolton at State and Wolfowitz and the departing Feith at the Pentagon. I might also mention Elliot Abrams' strange quasi-promotion out of his old NSC job toward a new one with a better title, but an ill-defined mandate as another possible instance. Hadley -- maybe -- wanted to get someone more reasonable to run the Near East shop there, but couldn't get Abrams fired, as such, so made up something else for him to do. Maybe.

UPDATE: Dan Drezner agrees and spells out some details. The things to keep an eye on are the three replacements and the related issue of Undersecretary Cambone's fate.

March 16, 2005 | Permalink

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BOLTON AND WOLFOWITZ....Yesterday I suggested that President Bush's appointment of well-known hawks John Bolton as UN ambassador and Paul Wolfowitz as World Bank president were, on a PR level, attempts to prove that he doesn't take guff from anyone. An... [Read More]

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» Bolton and Wolfowitz from Political Animal
BOLTON AND WOLFOWITZ....Yesterday I suggested that President Bush's appointment of well-known hawks John Bolton as UN ambassador and Paul Wolfowitz as World Bank president were, on a PR level, attempts to prove that he doesn't take guff from anyone. An... [Read More]

Tracked on Mar 17, 2005 12:23:18 PM

» Bolton and Wolfowitz from Political Animal
BOLTON AND WOLFOWITZ....Yesterday I suggested that President Bush's appointment of well-known hawks John Bolton as UN ambassador and Paul Wolfowitz as World Bank president were, on a PR level, attempts to prove that he doesn't take guff from anyone. An... [Read More]

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Comments

Matty you got it. Kevin doesn't have a clue.

Posted by: Bosko | Mar 16, 2005 7:45:13 PM

I was thinking this very thing today Matt, particularly in the case of Wolfowitz.

Bush has to keep his neoconnish supporters happy, since as quasi-liberals there is always the risk that they will bolt to the Democrats to try to forge a new coalition with the Lieberman/Beinart wing of the party. But they have possibly become an embarrassment to him, or at least enough of a burden that he needs to move them into positions where he hopes they will do less harm. Of course, they may actually do some harm - but that is another matter.

Posted by: Dan Kervick | Mar 16, 2005 8:15:41 PM

I think you're wrong, Matt. These are high rewards for loyal foot-soldiers -- and Bush, as we all know, values loyalty over anything else.

Posted by: ScrewyRabbit | Mar 16, 2005 8:23:49 PM

If that was intended as a thinking-outloud exercise, it may have had some merit for you. Otherwise, it didn't advance the cause of civilization one whit, nor did it get the White Sox any closer to a pennant.

Posted by: Nash | Mar 16, 2005 8:25:11 PM

I think you're mostly right, except that I think Abrams is locked in. There will be a Cheney-Cheney-Abrams axis, though.

On the post title, I totally got the Marvin Gaye reference. I am so smrt.

Posted by: praktike | Mar 16, 2005 8:31:31 PM

I basically disagree with you. It's hard to characterize Bolton's move as anything but a promotion. Wolfowitz is a more curious case, because it still just doesn't make any sense.

But on a broader level, I think your guilty of some wishful thinking. You think it'd be crazy to promote Bolton and Wolfowitz, so maybe these jobs aren't promotions? But there is no evidence that Bush is, or ever has been, disatisfied with these guys. There's no reason to believe he wants to reduce their power, and there's no evidence that he would act on it if he did.

Posted by: Dave M | Mar 16, 2005 8:56:18 PM

Robert McNamara moved from the Defense Dept to the World Bank in 68. When he spoke at my college a few years ago, he said that he wasn't sure whether he was fired or promoted. Anyone know if Wolfowitz wanted the job?

Posted by: Matthew K | Mar 16, 2005 9:01:13 PM

Kaplan does the contrarian thing here.

Posted by: praktike | Mar 16, 2005 9:15:29 PM

There is always questions in my mind when something happens in the WH: Did GWB come up with this, or Rove, or who? Was GWB eager or reluctant?

My general take is that GWB doesn't arrive at the office in the morning with some idea, and that this idea is then polished and presented.

Rather, I believe people bring things to him as recommendations and then, after some internal vetting and pushing/shoving, the action is announced.

So, who's responsible for the Bolton, Wolfowitz, Abrams, and Hughes appointments? Some arguments could be made that Bolton's promotion was Rice's idea, Wolfowitz's was Rumsfelds', Abrams' was Hadley's and Hughes was Rice/GWB/Hughes. Each of these principals had good reason to want change in their own organizations.

Without any evidence but gut feel, it seems to me that we see some evidence in each of these of a Rove-Rice conflict for GWB's heart and mind.

Rice would not want to be hamstrung at State as Colin Powell was with a cabal of people working at cross purposes to whatever she intends.

In each case, strong advocates in the camps of the 'opposition' are removed (or neutered, in the case of Abrams).

Hughes is a somewhat different case: a person GWB trusts that is thought to be an anti-Rove force. Hughes on Rice's staff is a different Hughes than Hughes in the WH staff. I don't believe for a minute that Hughes's principal assignment explains her return to the government, except in the broader context of Rice wanting more weight on her side and freedom to make a different foreign policy.

All of these moves reinforce that position.

Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Mar 16, 2005 9:33:37 PM

What does Hughes know about foreign policy? Does she speak a second language? The whole thing seems odd to me. Perhaps reinforcement for Rice makes sense.

Posted by: fnook | Mar 16, 2005 11:13:22 PM

I actually think the choices of Bolton for the UN and Wolfowitz are excellent. I care about the UN as much as anyone; it is now an extremely compromised institution. The UN needs a bad guy within its midst to force reform. Here's hoping Bolton performs. Wolfowitz, for anyone who has followed his career with attention, is well-suited for promoting development. If he conjoins what so often have been disjoined - democracy and development - he may favorably influence the course of history for literally millions of people. Wolfowitz is a Scoop Jackson Democrat by training, a self-defined "bleeding heart." That he is demonized by the Left reflects purely on the Left, not on him.

John

Posted by: John | Mar 16, 2005 11:47:21 PM

What does Hughes know about foreign policy?

Hughes doesn't know foreign policy. She knows communication. The position doesn't make our foreign policy; it is to best communicate our foreign policy (as well as everything else about America) to the rest of the world. And she is great at communication; she is an inspired choice.

I agree with John as to Bolton and Wolfowitz. As I posted on the prior thread, my only regret with Wolfowitz is that I think he has done a great job at the Pentagon and I hate to lose him there.

Posted by: Al | Mar 16, 2005 11:58:25 PM

The problem with Wolfowitz is that he was such a failure at the Pentagon. Sorry, Al, you got it 100% wrong. I actually think Wolfowitz might not be a bad choice, ideologically, for the World Bank because he sees development, democracy and trade as equal components. What will he do with the new Argentinas of the world, that spurn austerity and tell bankers to go fuck themselves? Who knows?

The problem with Wolfowitz was that his planning for the post-war in Iraq was about as poor as you can get. It's criminal that the Pentagon could have gone into Iraq and not only had so little knowledge of what the Iraqi infrastructure (physical and otherwise) looked like, but had no backup plan in case the parts didn't hold together right. Pure irresponsibility. If he manages the World Bank through a similar sort of crisis in a similar fashion, putting his ideology ahead of common sense and thorough planning, then his tenure will be just as much a failure as it was in Iraq.

Posted by: Elrod | Mar 17, 2005 12:16:44 AM

Don't forget that the Europeans can veto Wolfowitz. Furthermore, there's precedent: the US vetoed the German candidate for IMF head in 2000.

Face it, the Bolton and Wolfowitz appointments are widely seen in Europe as Bush flipping them a giant bird, especially given the timing (right after European trips by Bush and Rice that were supposed to be about making nice). Given how unpopular Bush is, facing him down will greatly improve the popularity and political standing of any politician that does it; notice how Berlesconi was forced by his own public opinion to announce a troop withdrawal.

Posted by: Joe Buck | Mar 17, 2005 12:17:49 AM

Wolfowitz, I don't know, but I don't buy your theory on Bolton for a minute. If you're trying to sideline someone, you don't make them ambassador to an institution for which they have repeatedly expressed visceral hatred. It's his defining characteristic. When you think of John Bolton, you think "That guy who hates the UN". It has to be deliberate, although I don't know if it's intended as a snub to the rest of the world or if it's the start of a policy for regime change at the UN.

Posted by: Ginger Yellow | Mar 17, 2005 5:15:51 AM

Matt;

Is it possible that our friend the President is just being playful and loose in appointing Wolfowitz and Bolton. Is it possibly his idea of fun making fun of the UN and the financial establisment?

Jonathan

Posted by: Jonathan | Mar 17, 2005 9:02:55 AM

This is what Senator Leahy had to say about Wolfie: "I know him to be an extraordinarily intelligent, creative thinker who has the potential to do a good job at the World Bank."

Posted by: jk | Mar 17, 2005 9:39:28 AM

The Wolfowitz appointment isn't a done deal. The USA, in an unprecendent move, vetoed the appointment of Koch-Weiser (sp?) to be head of the IMF last time around, so there's some payback coming. And vetoing Wolfowitz would be sweet payback indeed.

Still, assuming Wolfowitz gets through, he's not that bad an appointment. At least he cares about development, which is more than some of the hacks the US government has appointed to that post in the past. Recall Barber Conable

Conable had the grace to admit the truth. "The average congressman doesn't understand the World Bank," he observed, "and I was the average congressman

He had a good sese of humour, at least.

The Bolton appointment isn't bad either. He'll be effective in his own wierd way. But Karen Hughes will be a flop. Having lived 'overseas', as she puts it, in Canada and Panama, is not a qualification.

Posted by: Ikram | Mar 17, 2005 10:48:27 AM

Was it James Wolcott who pointed out the surest way to be proven wrong is to extend George Bush the benefit of the doubt?

I think you've gotta conclude the appointments' message is just exactly what it looks like it is: two great big middle fingers to the rest of the globe in general and to anyone who values the UN or international cooperation or development in particular. (Not that such development has been what the WB is actually engaged in at ground level, understand.)

Posted by: Winston Smith | Mar 17, 2005 11:03:14 AM

What will he do with the new Argentinas of the world, that spurn austerity and tell bankers to go fuck themselves? Who knows?

Why, bullying and scheming by different means, of course.

Posted by: abb1 | Mar 17, 2005 11:14:59 AM

Another way to look at all this is that the Republicans just don't have the bench to make good appointments. We have long known of their lack of a Bob Rubin equivalent in economics-look at the way the clueless Snow is allowed to continue in office and undermine confidence. Bolton and Wolfowitz have these jobs by default-no one of any quality would work for the Bush administration.

Posted by: Bob H | Mar 17, 2005 9:29:00 PM

Thank you so much for not basing your argument on world opinion. "...because I think the UN and the World Bank are important and there's every reason to think Wolfowitz and Bolton will ill-serve the interests of the United States and the world in those roles" is a much better argument than "because Europeans don't like them".

I'm not a unilaterlist, but qualifying all statements with what Europeans think is weak (not that Matt suffers from this, but too many liberal pundits do and it's turning off voters).

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