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If You Can't Take The Heat
Amy Sullivan argues that contrary to what I said before, the Wizards, at a minimum, would probably be better off getting the five seed and facing Cleveland followed by Detroit in the playoffs than dealing with the superifically easier NJ-Miami duo. I guess I agree that the 'Zards have a better shot against the Pistons, but I regard the odds of getting past the second round as so tiny either way that this is not worth worrying about. New Jersey, I think, is easier to beat than Cleveland and the real question facing the team this year is whether or not they lose in the first round.
March 15, 2006 | Permalink
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I know I'll be taken for a NJ homer for saying this, but I really don't think that Cleveland is any more difficult to beat than NJ. I mean, there's, what, a 1/2-game difference between them in the standings? And Cleveland is in its typical late-season swoon. If you take matchups out of the equation (and I'm not sure who the 'Zards match up better against), I think it will be slightly EASIER to get by Cleveland than NJ in the first round. That being said, I think the 3-6 and 4-5 matchups are going to be basically tossups.
And it's crazy to think that you'd rather play Detroit than Miami. At this point, Detroit is going through the motions waiting for the playoffs, so I wouldn't take any win too seriously now. But come time for the playoffs, Detroit will likely step it up a few notches.
Posted by: Al | Mar 15, 2006 3:35:47 PM
It isn't *too* crazy to suggest that the Wizards would rather face Detroit than Miami in the playoffs. The Wiz have lost 1000 straight games to the Heat, even when Shaq wasn't in the line-up, like Game 4 of last year's 2nd round Miami sweep. MY is right that the Wizards would have no realistic shot in either of those playoff match-ups, but it also doesn't seem like they would have any less chance against Detroit than they would against Miami.
Posted by: Haggai | Mar 15, 2006 3:43:01 PM
Detroit versus Miami I agree with Haggai. NJ versus Cleveland, I'm thinking primarily of matchups. The Wiz's interior defense is lamentable, so they have all kinds of Ilgauskas problems in addition to the inevitable King James factor. DC-NJ is a very even matchup that just comes down to who's "on" on any given night.
Posted by: Matthew Yglesias | Mar 15, 2006 3:59:28 PM
all kinds of Ilgauskas problems
I don't know why, but that's the funniest phrase I've read today.
I think I'm with Amy on this one - Shaq could get 40 and 20 for a series if he needed to against the Zards, and he'd only need to if Caron came with his A-game and Arenas v. Wade was largely a push. Yes the Pistons would dominate the interior as well, but their sort of dominance is not nearly as destructive or demoralizing as playing SHAQ SMASH! for a whole series.
Plus, worth noting that NJ is not a great match-up for the Zards. Lot's of big athletic guards who can give Gil some problems.
Posted by: Pooh | Mar 15, 2006 4:16:42 PM
Dammit, Pooh--my pathetic google-sleuthing has done little to reveal your Hogan Bros.-dining identity.
Posted by: DJ Ninja | Mar 15, 2006 4:28:56 PM
Dammit--I got it, you disc-flicking fool. I bow to your Wolves and b-ball prowess.
Posted by: DJ Ninja | Mar 15, 2006 4:49:13 PM
Busted!
Matt Yglesias - reuniter, not divider...
Posted by: Pooh | Mar 15, 2006 5:06:31 PM
NJ versus Cleveland, I'm thinking primarily of matchups.
I guess I don't see it. You put your best defender (Jefferies) on LBJ, and away you go. The 'Zards are 2-1 against Clevelan this year, but NJ and Washington split their 2 games so far.
Posted by: Al | Mar 15, 2006 5:08:30 PM
Is this the same Pooh who kept getting called "Poop" by some winger over at John Cole's place? That was pretty funny.
Posted by: JP | Mar 15, 2006 5:27:25 PM
That would be me, yes. That one of course never stops being funny.
Posted by: Pooh | Mar 15, 2006 5:40:04 PM
Poor Mavericks have a ton of injuries and might fall into the 2-3 bracket. It would break my heart not to get to play San Antonio in 2nd round.
Posted by: bob mcmanus | Mar 15, 2006 7:25:57 PM
Uh, no worries there, Bob...Mavs would have to fall all the way to SIXTH in the West for that to happen, and they're already up 12 games on the 5th place Clippers.
Posted by: Haggai | Mar 15, 2006 10:34:42 PM
For shits and giggles, I lobbed in the question from post to the WaPo's NBA writer, Michael Lee, during his online chat today (can anyone tell I am SOOOOOOOOOO ready for my vacation?). Here's what he said:
N.Y.C., N.Y.: Michael,
If you were the Wizards, would you rather play Cleveland or New jersey in the first round of the playoffs? And if you got by one of those teams, would you rather play Detroit or Miami in the second round (I know that most teams would not want to play Detroit, but we always seem to lose to Miami)?
I know I'm looking ahead, but ... we're close enough to the playoffs, aren't we?
Michael Lee: I'd take Cleveland. The Cavaliers have little to no playoff experience on their roster and LeBron has never been on that stage before. The Nets are playoff tested with Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson. I wouldn't want Detroit or Miami in the second round. Either series would be rather short -- no matter how much success the Wizards have had against Detroit in the regular season.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2006/03/15/DI2006031500992.html
I think that's a good point that nobody has talked about much. We have no idea how LeBron will respond in the playoffs, bacuase that Cavs have no playoff experience. Remember Vince Carter's first trip to the playoffs (back when he was still Vinsanity)? He was, um, not all that great (the second time he got to the playoffs, he was much, much better). I doubt LeBron will be that way, but you never know. Moreover, we have no idea how the other Cavs will react either. I'd rather play a bunch of playoff newbies than veterans with as much playoff experience and Kidd and Jefferson (and even Carter has been to the 2nd round).
Posted by: Al | Mar 16, 2006 3:18:43 PM
