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Free Agents
Very interesting column by Kevin Pelton on overpaying for free agents. He even mentions me! I was confused, however, by this: "How successful could a team composed solely of players on their rookie contracts really be? Barring a LeBron James- or Dwyane Wade-esque young superstar, it's hard to see such a team really contending." Well, sure, but this just seems like another way of saying that teams in contention usually include a superstar-caliber player.
July 20, 2006 | Permalink
Comments
I think all Pelton's saying is that free agency is a risk that has to be endured to some extent if you ever want to field a "contender," which is as you've observed before, the proper goal of NBA franchises (IIRC you contrasted this with the more conservative goal of making a given team very likely to be only pretty good). I've yet to read the column though, so maybe I'm not doing your objection justice.
Posted by: Drew | Jul 20, 2006 3:33:01 PM
He even mentions me!
That's cool (although I think Pooh getting quoted in the latest Bill Simmons column beats it).
Pelton makes another point I found interesting - he believes that the "biggest" contracts are generally the most economically efficient. Now, the article he cites doesn't really say that. It says that the most efficient contracts are for above-max players (i.e., players who, in the absence of the upper limit on salaries under the CBA, would command contracts greater than the then-current maxmimum amount). That's a concept that Matthew's discussed before, and it is obviously right: 'Melo and LeBron are making the same amount next year; who gives your team a better chance to win? But my question is whether contracts that are relatively large, but not maximum, are less likely to be overpriced (i.e., economically inefficient) than smaller contracts? That very well could be, since contracts greater than the mid-level exception may only be bid on by a few teams under the cap, while mid-level and smaller contracts can be bid by all the teams. This gives the bidders less chance to run afoul the winner's curse.
So does that mean the team most likely to be efficient is a team with a few highly paid (even if not max) players and the rest very low paid players?
Posted by: Al | Jul 20, 2006 7:48:49 PM
So does that mean the team most likely to be efficient is a team with a few highly paid (even if not max) players and the rest very low paid players?
I think this gets complicated fast. For example, by "efficient," do you mean to measure the number of wins per dollar, or the likelihood of winning a championship per dollar? Or how do you factor in style? I think that there is a certain efficiency to the Suns style, because there are a lot of players that are not very good in other systems that are much more valuable in their own. And so on.
Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Jul 20, 2006 11:20:27 PM
It is far more impressive that *you* mentioned *me* (of course, mentioning you in my column helped in that effort).
Yeah, the line about James and Wade does seem obvious in hindsight, though it might be useful to remember how rare such players are; Yao Ming was the only other player on his rookie contract to make an All-NBA team last season or rank in my top 20 or so players.
Al, that's an interesting point. My comment about elite players was thinking largely of Ben Wallace. Did the Bulls overpay him? Yeah, probably. Will they regret it? Probably not that much.
Posted by: Kevin Pelton | Jul 20, 2006 11:44:22 PM
as you probably realize, al, they long ago concluded in hollywood that the only people worth paying for are stars.
to put it another way, as bill veeck said, back at the dawn of free agency, "it's not the high price of stardom but the high price of mediocrity that will kill you."
Posted by: howard | Jul 21, 2006 4:49:52 AM
"That's cool (although I think Pooh getting quoted in the latest Bill Simmons column beats it)."
Quite true, but on the downside, he gets quoted about a faux sport rather than basketball...
Posted by: Petey | Jul 21, 2006 5:55:06 AM
Yeah, the line about James and Wade does seem obvious in hindsight, though it might be useful to remember how rare such players are; Yao Ming was the only other player on his rookie contract to make an All-NBA team last season or rank in my top 20 or so players.
Posted by: John waltzer | Jul 21, 2006 8:08:31 AM
petey, if your attention span is too short for soccer, de gustibus non est disputandum, but at least soccer fans don't have to waste any of their lives with all this salary cap crap....
Posted by: howard | Jul 21, 2006 10:38:45 AM
but at least soccer fans don't have to waste any of their lives with all this salary cap crap....
Thankfully, for us Chelsea fans!
Posted by: Al | Jul 21, 2006 11:53:48 AM
true enough, al, but the great thing about chelski is mourinho knows how to use the scratch to build a team and not simply an aggregation of talent.
btw, i didn't realize you were a fan: i actually went to stamford bridge back in 1974....
Posted by: howard | Jul 21, 2006 12:01:58 PM
Is it just me, or is the John waltzer comment an example of the next big innovation in spam?
Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | Jul 21, 2006 12:26:26 PM
"Is it just me, or is the John waltzer comment an example of the next big innovation in spam?"
Yup. Although it's not exactly new - I've seen similar examples for a few months now.
And I do appreciate this spambot's willingness to stay on topic. Ain't nothing worse than a spambot with a short attention span...
Posted by: Petey | Jul 21, 2006 1:45:18 PM
As you know, I'm a Barca fan first (and they do pretty well without a salary cap too). And have actually been to the Camp Nou, which is gigantic. But as for the EPL, yeah, Chelsea. I'd love to go to Stamford Bridge some day - it seems like a nice little band box in a fun area. Hell, I've never even travelled to England, save Heathrow Airport.
Posted by: Al | Jul 21, 2006 1:47:40 PM
so al, you must be happy about zambrotta and thuram, signings that will make more of a difference than, say, Darius Songaila....
Posted by: howard | Jul 21, 2006 6:30:11 PM
Yeah - it's going to be interesting to see what hapens to all these Juve, Fiorentino, etc. players. I'm surprised that some of these Italian players are leaving Italy - they usually don't do it.
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Posted by: collins | Aug 1, 2006 6:12:37 AM
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Posted by: MARK APOLLOS ARUORIWO ITEIRE | Aug 17, 2006 9:26:23 AM
