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Grand Schisms

Andrew Sullivan's got a post predicting a grand schism within the GOP after the election no matter who wins. I'd like to believe it, but I've got my doubts. John McCain is the obvious leader of a dissident faction within conservatism, but despite the best efforts of many Bush-doubters on the right he's consistently declined to take the steps that would turn him into a real factional leader. I don't say he needs to leave the party or anything, but he didn't need to agree to go speak at the convention, either. Or, at least, he could have held out for some favors -- a White House denunciation of Denny Hastert's "you don't know the meaning of sacrifice" bit or something substantive on the Paygo issue or anything, really.

Most mildly, if he wanted to, he could organize a sub-caucus for GOP moderates or a series of meetings between moderate congressional staffers and their potential allies in the think tank and intellectual worlds or just do something -- anything -- beyond making the occassional critical statement on television. But I've been watching for years and hoping that McCain, Hagel, Lugar, Snowe, Collins, Chaffee, and maybe some others would really do something to dissociate themselves from the administration and give sign of a determined effort to build a more responsible GOP and I simply haven't seen any sign that it's going to happen. Maybe -- maybe -- a big Kerry win will produce a crisis of confidence that leads to some changes, but if Bush gets re-elected, everyone will swallow their reservations and get back with the program.

July 1, 2004 | Permalink

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» Republican Civil War? from Centerfield
Andrew Sullivan says that a long and nasty civil war looms between moderates and conservatives for control of the Republican agenda. I think he is half-right. If Bush is re-elected, I think that Republicans will find a way to get... [Read More]

Tracked on Jul 1, 2004 4:35:13 PM

» Republican Civil War? from Centerfield
Andrew Sullivan says that a long and nasty civil war looms between moderates and conservatives for control of the Republican agenda. I think he is half-right. If Bush is re-elected, I think that Republicans will find a way to get... [Read More]

Tracked on Jul 1, 2004 4:37:20 PM

Comments

Most of the GOP moderates seem to have a little of George C. Scott's character in "The Hospital." They place personal loyalty and responsibility over purity of ideals or love. This is why Powell still works for Bush, and why McCain isn't going to tell anyone who he's really gonna vote for.

Posted by: J'myle Koretz | Jul 1, 2004 11:34:44 AM

three cheers and wishes for a very long life for the Republican Main Street Partnership. May they bring back some sanity to their tainted party. If not, it may please their members to switch parties. Jim Jeffords et al, come right on in!

Posted by: Sean | Jul 1, 2004 11:36:44 AM

Like many of Sullivan's pieces this one is a mix between analysis and his personal hopes. The McCain-Giuliani-Schwarzeneggar "Eagle" strand in the GOP, if it ever coalesced as Andrew would like, would make it a lot easier for gay conservatives to keep their GOP voter registrations while not suffering such a Dubya-sized split (more than what's already implied by being a gay Republican) in their psyches.

Posted by: sic semper | Jul 1, 2004 11:38:57 AM

"McCain, Hagel, Lugar, Snowe, Collins, Chaffee"

I think you are looking in the wrong places. As is Sullivan.

1) That Arnie could put California in play along with Pataki/Giuliani possibly putting NY in play could be very attractive to the socially moderate Repubs. The libertarian wing, or one wing of it.

2) Senators are very unhappy with the budgets. Not neccessarily with the amount of spending, or a desire to raise taxes, but with the fact that they are so constrained on pork and power. We have another 100 billion dollar Iraq bill coming due.

3) The biggest. The House wingnuts have almost already left the reservation. DeLay and Hastert. They were beyond furious at the Medicare Drug bill, even before they found out they were lied to. DeLay, to only slightly paraphrase, has publicly said he is ignoring the WH budgets and priorities. They feel they getting virtually no support against the Senate wusses (Highway Bill, for instance). They are completely disenchanted with WH efforts on social issues, the FMA got a press conference but no campaigning or pressure.
Like Tacitus, they think Iraq is blown, but on opposite terms than yourself.

Rove has not played to the base by choice, but out of desperation. Bush's biggest worry is that DeLay's people will keep their mouths shut, but stay home on election day.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Jul 1, 2004 11:49:16 AM

I have no idea what McCain actually stands for anymore. The GOP rebellion I want to see is from the fiscal conservatives.

Posted by: digamma | Jul 1, 2004 12:03:48 PM

While we're speculating on the GOP, assume Dubya gets drubbed in November, and then ask where the power center of the GOP will be.

At the national level (Congress) the 'moderates' are without a clue about taking control of the GOP. The state parties in most cases are hopelessly less moderate than the national people.

The Delay/Frist 'power' conservatives are likely to still dominate their party. Their 'take no prisoners' views will likely turn more strongly against the 'compromisers'.

Where is the evidence that the GOP will become more moderate? There isn't any to be seen.

What about the 'policy establishment'? Well, the neo-cons are on the ropes now, and their foreign policy hopes will be dashed on the rocks of a broken military that is tied down in Iraq. Bush has already surrendered to the asian allies taking over the N. Korea debate. Britain, France and Germany are controlling the Iran issue, not the US.

The GOP is rotting from the core. In 2000 it was pure personality (all Dubya, all the time), and post-2004 it is unclear how they can do anything but attempt to cling to their congressional power. If they lose control of the house or senate, or both, who do they turn to for leadership? McCain? Where would he lead them? The power structure of the GOP is strongly anti-McCain (although they will ride his support for Bush till November).

The GOP is now hollow in philosophy since their key issues - tax cuts, assertive national security, faith-based moral values - are not taking them and the country anywhere post-2004.

Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Jul 1, 2004 12:05:51 PM

Talk about your unexpected: i've been noting, in various blog posts, for a while that i expect a major rupture in the GOP if Bush loses, and now, in the fullness of time, i find myself sharing that thought with Andrew Sullivan. It almost makes me want to re-think.

But no, despite the various questions noted above, i think it is coming if Bush blows this election, and i think bob mcmanus is on track, although my personal categorization is that the true conservatives (admittedly, a dwindling band) and the right-wingers will be the ones fighting it out.

JimPortlandOR, i agree that DeLay and Frist are irredemable, but a schism in the GOP doesn't have to mean that all the bad guys are evicted from positions of power; it simply has to mean that the lockstep neo-totalitarian unity that we've seen on the right-wing agenda diminishes....

Posted by: howard | Jul 1, 2004 12:17:28 PM

It does seem feasible a Kerry win would bring about something similar to what happened to the Torries.
I could be wrong, but a certain part of the GOP's appeal was to its seeming strength, and its sense of momentum. A Kerry win could deflate that, and on the issues, (R)s are in trouble, and the demographics point to things only getting worse for them. A couple of points here or there and changing sense of momentum could cause a collapse.

Posted by: theCoach | Jul 1, 2004 12:22:01 PM

...rotting from the core? Come on. They are strong and healthy like never before. They got their constituency of corporate crooks, religious nuts, rednecks and hicks cemented for decades to come. The Republican party registrations are up, Democratic down. They got all the money in the world. They've got the media. They've got the evil enemy. They are doing fine. They can easily defeat any conceivable dissent in their ranks, just by financing an opponent in the primaries.

For this "grand schism" to happen, it would take another watergate, if not another great depression, I am afraid.

Posted by: abb1 | Jul 1, 2004 12:40:14 PM

"McCain, Hagel, Lugar, Snowe, Collins, Chaffee, and maybe some others"

They're just too outnumbered. Even if there's a lot of Republican sentiment out there, the ones elected are a different animal from the New England Republicans particularly.

Sullivan's diagnosis of the contradictions was astute, but I can't help but feel he's universalizing HIS discontent with certain Republican position into a generalized crisis.

By the way, David Warsh had an interesting piece this week at economicprincials.com, predicting that 2004 will play out like 1968 did for the Dems. Only the crisis might take some time to play out.

Posted by: Chris in Boston | Jul 1, 2004 1:26:24 PM

digamma hits the nail on the head. In order for McCain to lead a faction, he would have to have a philosophy around which a faction could coalesce. McCain's philosophy seems to be "Get me some publicity". He takes positions that the editors of the NY Times and the producers of the network news like (tobacco, campaign finance) to generate some good pub for himself.

Posted by: Matt | Jul 1, 2004 1:46:34 PM

If the GOP concludes that it needs to become more socially moderate, then the Christian right could easily come back to the democratic party.

Suppose, for instance, that the GOP concludes its future strategy is in Hispanics. The Republican party proposes a guest-worker esque program, while the Democratic party proposes "less" immigration, but more citizenship opportunities for those who do come over. At the same time, the Democrats draft compromise abortion legislation (say, restricting 3rd trimester abortion to life or grevious health exceptions) as part of a larger package to reduce unwanted pregnancy. These sorts of plans could bring working class white voters back to the party.

In "What's the Matter With Kansas", Thomas frank interviews a pro-life activist who admits to once being a democrat. She says "after NAFTA, there was nothing left for me in the Democratic party". Likewise, if the GOP has to rachet down the morality tone, a bunch of those folks may go back to the Democratic party on kitcken table economic issues. The schism is coming ...

Posted by: niq | Jul 1, 2004 1:47:36 PM


As I said on Brad Delong, if the Rational Republicans, the Tooth Fairy, the Great Pumpkin, and Santa Claus would only unite their forces, they would be irresistible.

And I have said elsewhere many times, the Democrats-for-McCain movement is submissive wetting on the part of Democratic SM bottoms, of whom Sullivan is assuredly one.

McCain is a conservative superhawk, and he's a pussy when it comes to confronting the republican political establishment. Bush's goons personally trashed him and his whole family during the 2000 primaries, and now he's campaigning for Bush.

Posted by: Zizka | Jul 1, 2004 2:16:32 PM

"religious nuts, rednecks and hicks"

aka the white working class

Posted by: Josh | Jul 1, 2004 2:30:16 PM

Not "the" white working class. Only a part of it, an easily identifiable part.

Posted by: abb1 | Jul 1, 2004 2:45:33 PM

John McCain hasn't pursued any national ambitions, lately, hasn't turned his run for president into a power-bloc, and hasn't really leveraged his popularity into influencing Bush's message (AFAIK). All of his moves seem to be directed to going off into the sunset of retirement. He is in his mid-to-late 60s at this point... It seems that he hasn't done anything with his political capital and popularity except to promote the books he has written.

Posted by: Constantine | Jul 1, 2004 2:48:05 PM

Digamma's point is well-taken.

I'd add that McCain is disliked very strongly within the GOP hierarchy on a personal basis. He has a marked tendency to be something of a bully and abrasive to colleagues sharing his ideology.

Posted by: Jadegold | Jul 1, 2004 2:58:10 PM

Need I point out the obvious?

Sullivan is an inconsequential hack and Bush cares even less than I do about who he votes for.

Posted by: bunny | Jul 1, 2004 5:29:52 PM

PAC power. That's the key. Until the Main Streeters can bring organizational and financial clout, they got nuthin'.

Posted by: asdf | Jul 1, 2004 5:57:20 PM

I substantially agree with bunny, except that I would say that I care less than Bush does who Sullivan votes for.

Posted by: raj | Jul 1, 2004 6:36:07 PM

somebody once quoted John Podesta on a DKos comment board:

"Whenever someone brings me a plan that relies on the Moderate Republicans not caving under pressure, I say 'Bring me another plan'".

Posted by: roublen vesseau | Jul 1, 2004 8:03:53 PM

Niq totally missed the point of the Kansas article. The point wasn't that Democrats need to move to the right socially to draw back working-class whites, the point was that left based on populist economic ideas will beat a right based on social and religious issues. Populism comes in left-wing and right-wing flavors, but the economic populism that the Democrats used to deal in can beat social-issue populism that the GOP deals in today any day of the week.

Anyway, if moderate Republicans really think the right-wingers are going to take a bath, then all they need to do is sit tight until November. If the part splits it will be because the right wing will have taken picked up their ball and gone home. When your party is in power, there's no incentive to change anything.

Posted by: Melissa O | Jul 2, 2004 1:32:02 AM

1. I like McCain, but he's no leader and has few friends in politics. That's not all bad - he ticks off a lot of people with his anti-pork crusades.

2. McCain's not that socially liberal, whereas a lot of GOP moderates are big spenders who hate him and a lot of the people who are most upset about spending are on the conservative side. (Sullivan to the contrary, pro-life, socially conservative Republicans are, as a group, much more likely to be spending hawks than are pro-choice, socially liberal Republicans).

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Posted by: john | May 11, 2006 1:38:19 PM

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