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The Future

Glenn Reynolds and Ramesh Ponnuru speculate about the future:

I certainly agree with this statement by Ramesh Ponnuru: "There is a serious possibility that the libertarian wing of the conservative movement goes off in its own direction, either breaking off or allying with the Democrats." The Democratic party, in its current configuration, is in decline. But the split between libertarians and social conservatives is likely to determine the shape of politics over the next decades.
That strikes me as deeply misguided. To regard a political party which has won the popular vote in the past three presidential elections and whose current nominee is, despite a widely noted lack of charisma, holding a narrow lead in most polls strikes me as a bit odd. More broadly, there are all kinds of median voter theorum sort of reasons to think that neither party will ever decline. Perhaps more importantly, the notion that the future will be determined by a split between libertarians and social conservatives seems to imply that the small government philosophy they both share is going to become a part of the conventional wisdom. Now I suppose that might happen, but there's precious little evidence for it. George Bush, Tom DeLay, and Bill Frist, after all, are the ones who've recently brought us the largest expansion of entitlement spending since Lyndon Johnson. And they lead the party that's suppose to represent the two wings of small government politics. That sounds to me like public support for small government has sort of jumped the shark.

What's more, while the current battles over gay rights have brough about a lot of lib/con contentiousness, I think it's wrong to see that as a lasting feature of the landscape. Once social conservatives lose the battle over gay equality (as they've already lost the battles for gender equality and racial equality) it's not clear to me that any issue of comparable emotional weight will emerge to take its place. The "culture wars" are extremely fierce right now, which makes it hard to believe that they'll ever end, but it's worth considering the possibility that the current ferocity reflects the fact that we're seeing the final campaign of a decades-long struggle. The futue may (and, I think, probably will) look quite a bit different from the present.

July 18, 2004 | Permalink


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Posted by: Carleton | Jul 18, 2004 1:22:49 AM

Man, I don't know. You are an optimistic kinda guy. Granted that the social conservative movement may have peaked ten years ago, mainly gaining its vitality thru superior organization, logistics and tactics. I can buy that.

You seem to think that the Schwarzenegger/Pataki wing will gain ascendance in the GOP, maybe bleeding off some DLC Democrats, and the DeLay/Santorum wing will be marginalized, and back-benched to irrelevance. Maybe, but I promise you, they will not die quietly.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Jul 18, 2004 2:11:25 AM

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All one has to do to realize the folly of Matthew's predictions on here is remember that the Victorian age followed on the heels of an era notorious for its libertine excesses. History is not deterministic, need not follow some foreordained path, and it almost certainly isn't merely a straightforward march of progress with just the odd road bump in the way.

What I'm trying to say is that it's just too smug to assume that the battle is pretty much won for good.

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Posted by: Abiola Lapite | Jul 18, 2004 7:45:16 AM

Only a man with as bloated a sense of self-importance as Glenn Reynolds thinks that 50 pseudo conservative bloggers constitute the enxt political wave while the party that wins 50 million votes is in decline. At least the man is consistent in his stunning lack of analytical ability.

Posted by: strawman | Jul 18, 2004 8:23:44 AM

Reynolds apparently has access to some mind-warping drugs. To claim the Dems are in decline--given recent history and the emerging demographics which almost all work in their favor--is ludicrous.

Of course, claiming libertarians are some kind of growing political force is to ignore the fact the libertarians saw a 15% decline in support from 1996 to 2000 in the presidential race. In 2000, the LP was soundly beaten by a Pat Buchanan run.

Posted by: Jadegold | Jul 18, 2004 9:01:36 AM

I think that the conservative emphasis on social issues has sort of gotten them away from small government. They realized, "Hey, we're in power now, we can control morality! Forget about stinkin' small government, we're on a crusade to save America's soul!"

When the social conservatives finally lose this last battle, I think that we will increasingly see the debate switch to economic rights. Civil rights are obviously of greater importance, but once that battle is over people are going to start talking more about why so much of their money is going to government and if that's a good thing.

In the end, I believe those who favor liberty over authoritarianism or statism always win. But one battle at a time. Once the gay rights battle is over and the forces of liberty have won, it's going to start shifting to economic rights. And if statists think they are going to win that one, they need to take a dose of reality. Whenever the choice is clear between liberty and authoritarianism, liberty always wins unless the issue is distracted by other things. Which is currently the case now. Young people especially can't in good conscience support the Republicans over the gay rights issue. But once that is past, I think you'll see a lot more people concentrating mainly on getting government off their backs in other ways. Out of their wallets and out of their bedrooms.

Posted by: Adam Herman | Jul 18, 2004 9:11:50 AM

"Once social conservatives lose the battle over gay equality (as they've already lost the battles for gender equality and racial equality) it's not clear to me that any issue of comparable emotional weight will emerge to take its place."

I feel pretty confident that the strife resulting from a Bush-packed Court turning back the abortion clock would manage to keep the social conservatives motivated.

Posted by: Matt Davis | Jul 18, 2004 10:08:58 AM

But once that is past, I think you'll see a lot more people concentrating mainly on getting government off their backs in other ways. Out of their wallets and out of their bedrooms.

not everybody feels the government is on their back.

Posted by: cleek | Jul 18, 2004 10:22:44 AM

once that is past, I think you'll see a lot more people concentrating mainly on getting government off their backs in other ways. Out of their wallets and out of their bedrooms.

I think the most endearing flaw of libertarianism as a political movement, is its child=like inability to grasp the fact that the welfare state is amazingly popular.

Posted by: WillieStyle | Jul 18, 2004 10:41:55 AM

A party which won a plurality in the past three elections is hardly dominant.

Posted by: jd | Jul 18, 2004 11:06:49 AM

The "culture wars" are extremely fierce right now, which makes it hard to believe that they'll ever end, but it's worth considering the possibility that the current ferocity reflects the fact that we're seeing the final campaign of a decades-long struggle.

What about gay adoption? I agree that there are so many culture war battles we can hash out before we've won all the central items on our agenda. Gay marriage won't be the last frontbut if you're looking at things generationally, the Greatest Generation/Baby Boomer conservative spirit can't burn full-bore forever.

Posted by: Kriston | Jul 18, 2004 11:30:47 AM

I wonder if Matt's long-term crystal ball is as accurate as his short-term version (think "Howard Dean").

Posted by: P.B. Almeida | Jul 18, 2004 12:15:28 PM

I think that everybody is missing one thing here. What will cause the split? That libertarians don't like the government telling people what they or can't do in their bedrooms?

What about private industry? Most libertarians I know would accept private industry telling people what they can or can't do, using blacklists and the like to enforce it. Would social conservatives accept that?

I think they would.

Posted by: Karmakin | Jul 18, 2004 12:18:53 PM

Two things, at least at first.

The Democratic party is in decline? Please. If anything, trends are shifting more towards the Democrats, and unless something truly earth shattering happens, this sort of political realignment will continue. They need to read a look like The Emerging Democratic majority, not listen to people like Michael Barone (while I haven't read his work on this area, I've seen it demolished, and while he's not the only one who spouts these misguided notions, he seems to be one of the most popular guys to go to).

Now, as for the Democrats getting certain libertarians to come on board or at least align themselves to the party, I guess it could happen. It's kind of cool to think of this happening, actually, because it would give us more of a base. Perhaps they are approaching a state of mind where they need to pick the lesser or two evils, which, they feel, the Democrats are.

Posted by: Brian | Jul 18, 2004 1:23:22 PM

"But once that is past, I think you'll see a lot more people concentrating mainly on getting government off their backs in other ways. Out of their wallets and out of their bedrooms."

Clinton seems to have shown people that the government can be involved in your lifes, not as a guiding force, but as something bringing everything up the rear. The Republicans seem to treat this as a black or white issue and also seem to predict hysteria or anarchy if taxes go up by three percent.

Posted by: Brian | Jul 18, 2004 1:30:25 PM

Libertarians will never be attracted to the Democratic Party--the core of the party is statist. The problem for Republicans is that their core is allegedly not statist--power has corrupted them, one might suppose.

Posted by: jd | Jul 18, 2004 1:36:53 PM

Taking professor instanitwit seriously about anything is what i call "deeply misguided."

This out of the way, there is a looming battle in the republican party (if bush loses) between the right-wingers and the true conservatives; insofar as libertarians have a dog in this fight, it will be with the true conservatives, but since libertarians are a pretty minor piece of the pie....

As for social conservative issues, the looming struggle, in my estimation, is the right to die, and i believe it will make the endless struggle over abortion rights look like nothing but a warmup....

PS. Kriston, the right to gay adoption is accepted in a good number of states already, and as a related note, i commend to you Dan Savage's The Kid, about his and his partner's gay adoption....

Posted by: howard | Jul 18, 2004 2:01:58 PM

When fundies lose the current culture war, they won't go away. Rather it's not hard to imagine that they won't turn their sights onto consumerism, even big business.

The current coalition of fundies with the corporate interests is totally strategic and artificial; the two groups actually have little in common. By contrast, fundies and environmentalists are ascetics at heart, and hence natural allies. Feminists fighting pornography, highbrows railing against throwaway culture, new urbanists fighting suburban blight, all would conceivably line up with the fundies and enviros; while the no-tax and gun rights types would find allies in drug legalization activists, pro-development types, and, crucially, sexual libertines including gays and lesbians.

Consumerism is sure to be for the near term, as it has since the end of WW2, the mainspring of American life. But it's not hard to see the bloom fading from the consumer culture at some point, especially as the population ages.

(I don't say whether this is good or bad, and indeed am not even sure which side I'd be on if this came to pass.)

Posted by: son volt | Jul 18, 2004 2:10:10 PM

Kevin Phillips has an interesting piece about the issue in the latest Nation here:


Basically he's arguing that the Dems could and should move from a plurality to a clear majority by wooing the pro-Perot/McCain Republicans away from the social conservatives.

Posted by: Scats | Jul 18, 2004 5:07:03 PM

"By contrast, fundies and environmentalists are ascetics at heart, and hence natural allies" ...son volt (good blues)

Trying to imagine the Tom DeLay/Andrea Dworkin 2012 ticket. Or Ted Nugent/Jennifer Lopez.

"The futue may (and, I think, probably will) look quite a bit different from the present."

Guess so.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Jul 18, 2004 10:09:26 PM

son volt: The current coalition of fundies with the corporate interests is totally strategic and artificial; the two groups have little in common.

Agreed. The unfettered market that economic libertarians love so dearly has done more to disrupt the traditional living arrangements and cultural norms that their social-conservative allies cherish than a thousand tie-dyed hippies or Foucault-spouting academics ever could. The Robert Bork types are really in bed with their natural political enemies.

That's not even taking into account that many rank-and-file fundies belong to the working- and lower-middle classes and support things like protectionism which are anathema to their pro-market compatriots. Buchanan's genius in '92 was synthesizing both the cultural *and* economic grievances of these people.

Posted by: Wally Ballou | Jul 19, 2004 11:15:52 AM

(if anyone's still here)

bob: DeLay has no principles, so it's hard to guess which side he'd end up on. The natural leader of the ascetic/communitarian coalition would be Joe Lieberman, who dould conceivably indeed hope for the endorsements of both Catherine MacKinnon and Rick Santorum.

As for the consumerist/individualist ticket: who better than Arnold Schwarzenegger?

Posted by: son volt | Jul 19, 2004 12:13:33 PM

I think you're missing two big culture battles on the horizon:

Genetics--don't mess with God/Nature yada yada along with glamour/only-rich-people-can-afford-it genetic 'enhancements'

Information Technology--I don't see the landscape formed yet, but surely all sorts of culture wars are ripe to occur as the Internet threatens local mores around the world. Not to mention privacy, etc.

Both these should be heating up as Gay/Lesbian/Women/Blacks begin feeling comfortable in the fabric. Both have certain economic elements to them, but so did putting the 'other half' of the population to work

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