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Democracy Corps Says...

...Kerry wins by 45 to 37. Among independents he won 44-33. Among undecideds Kerry won 39-30. Battleground staters say Kerry won 45 to 40. Bush didn't really make any mistakes and didn't go down on any of his ratings. At the same time, Bush didn't push his ratings up on any key metrics. Indeed, despite Bush's attacks on Kerry, Kerry improved his position on key indicators like taxes and projecting a reassuring persona. As a result, Kerry's vote margin over Bush has increased by two percentage points.

October 9, 2004 | Permalink

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Comments

After the first debate, people said Kerry had crushed Bush. Now, the electoral college gives Bush 240 delegates ( highest ever for him ) and 169 to Kerry ( lowest ever for him ).


Winning a debate isn't about making points that are convincing to wonks. It's about getting votes in swing states. What's going on there?

Posted by: WeSaferThemHealthier | Oct 9, 2004 12:03:23 PM

Now, the electoral college gives Bush 240 delegates ( highest ever for him ) and 169 to Kerry ( lowest ever for him ).

Not according to this guy. What are you talking about, WSTH?

Posted by: abb1 | Oct 9, 2004 12:21:48 PM

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm

Guess the methodologies are quite different.


Thanks for the other source.

Posted by: WeSaferThemHealthier | Oct 9, 2004 12:27:12 PM

Yeah, your Rasmussen guys say:

Last week, before the Presidential debate, three states moved from Leans Kerry to Toss-Up (Michigan, New Jersey and Maryland). Since that time, the polls in some states have drifted back towards the Democrat. But, none have moved enough at the moment to shift out of Toss-Up status.


It would be hard to convince me that Michigan, New Jersey and Maryland are toss-up states.

Posted by: abb1 | Oct 9, 2004 12:34:56 PM

MD, NJ and MI are still solidly Kerry. Other polls confirm it - Eagleton/Rutgers in NJ, lots in MI, new SUSA in MD.

Posted by: Elrod | Oct 9, 2004 1:19:11 PM

Depending on which poll you look at Kerry's lead in MD is either 10 or 15. Safe, anyway.

Posted by: Angry Blue Planet | Oct 9, 2004 10:55:37 PM

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