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How To Steal Explosives And Build A Fission Bomb
Josh Marshall writes about how intept war planning let the Iraqi insurgency get hundreds of tons of super high-quality explosives that they've used to kill our troops and radically undermine our efforts to build Iraqi security forces. The explosives in question were, before the war, under guard by the IAEA because these are the sort of explosives you use in building nuclear weapons. As I understand it, these sorts of high-grade explosives are not strictly necessary for the construction of a nuclear weapon. I'm not a nuclear engineer (in case you hadn't guessed) by my understanding is that a gun-triggered fission device doesn't require this sort of thing. The high-explosives are in case you're trying to build an implosion-trigged fission device. The latter bomb design is more efficient -- i.e., you get a bigger explosion per unit of highly-enriched uranium. On the other hand, the gun-triggered devices present less-daunting engineering problems along several dimensions, so there's reason to believe this is the kind of thing a terrorist outfit would try to build anyway.
As a side note, it's worth keeping in mind that when we talk about nuclear proliferation scenarios, especially with regards to terrorists, we're primarily talking about modest-sized fission devices of the sort that are in the Pakistani arsenal and are easier to build in general. It sounds silly to say that, but these bombs aren't nearly as destructive as what most people think of when they hear "nuclear bomb." America's collective consciousness of nuclear weapons derives from Cold War scenarios involving the exchange of very large, ICBM-launched, fusion devices which are far more destructive.
October 24, 2004 | Permalink
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Comments
Ah, good. I feel relieved now.
Of my bowels.
Posted by: praktike | Oct 24, 2004 11:52:40 PM
If this story is not HUGE in the media tomorrow and for days to come then we shall all know for sure just how incompetent both the administration AND the media are! It should be just the OCTOBER SURPRISE that Rove didn't want to see the light of day...have to wonder just what else they have managed to keep "covered up".
Posted by: Dancer | Oct 24, 2004 11:56:49 PM
Matt said:
***:It sounds silly to say that, but these bombs aren't nearly as destructive as what most people think of when they hear "nuclear bomb."***
The Heroshima bomb was a simple gun type uranium bomb. I'd just as soon not have that go off in New York.
Posted by: Robert Brown | Oct 25, 2004 12:05:33 AM
Robert -- obviously, obviously. I'm just saying that it's not quite as bad as some people think. Hiroshima was, like other Japanese cities of the era, constructed of extremely flammable material by contemporary standards. A Hiroshima-type explosion in New York City would be an awful, awful thing, but it would actually destroy a significantly smaller patch of land. But still absolutely awful. Obviously.
Posted by: Matthew Yglesias | Oct 25, 2004 12:09:03 AM
I hate "intept" [sic] war planning.
Posted by: Modern Crusader | Oct 25, 2004 12:26:42 AM
In any nuclear bomb there is a need for a very high energy explosive. One problem with making an atomic bomb is getting the critical mass of Uranium or Plutonium to stay together long enough to be critical long enough for a huge number of atomic neuclei to be "split". You can't, for example, just press two subcritical masses of Uranium that together equal a more than critical mass together - they will be driven apart before they get close enough to be critical. That means a high explosive is needed to drive the non-critical masses or non-critical geometry together with enough momentum to overcome the outward pressure of the initial fission explosion. So, that lost explosive material would make either the Hiroshima or Nagasaki type bomb much more effective. And, yes, it is true that NYC would not be so totally devastated by such a bomb as Hiroshima was. Nagasaki sustained much less damage partly because it was not as susceptible to the explosion due to the hilly topography (and, the bomb missed its target) It was criminally incompetent for us to allow that explosive in such a large quantity to be taken by probable terrorists. Impeachment, anyone?
Posted by: Vaughn Hopkins | Oct 25, 2004 12:30:07 AM
The overpressure zone wasn't that big, but probably was larger than Manhattan is wide. And Manhattan is more populous than Hiroshima was. Anyway, I think we're all in agreement here.
More importantly, how much low-level radioactive waste was sticky-fingered in Iraq? In combination with some high explosives, which they seem to have handy, the terrorists might be able to make a nice dirty bomb, which of course would kill very few, but scare the beejebus out of many. Enquiring voters want to know.
Posted by: Tom DC/VA | Oct 25, 2004 12:34:32 AM
The explosives in question were, before the war, under guard by the IAEA because these are the sort of explosives you use in building nuclear weapons.
But wait, I thought there were no WMDs in Iraq! Could it be that the left-wing media has just been lying this entire time in order to steal the election for Kerry? Not that they'll ever admit it, since there's nothing the left excels at more than denying reality.
Posted by: Al | Oct 25, 2004 12:37:43 AM
Based on my reading of "The Making of the
Atomic Bomb", I believe the simple
gun-type bomb design only works with
highly-enriched uranium (U235).
Plutonium (produced by bombarding U238
with neutrons in a reactor, and then
chemically separated) requires an
implosion bomb. Roughly speaking,
plutonium goes off too quickly, so the
gun-type design will blow itself apart
before the critical mass is fully
assembled.
Generating a spherically-symmetrical
and well-synchronized implosion
shock wave is quite difficult -
requiring fast detonators, precision
casting of blocks of fast and slow
explosives to focus the incoming
shock wave, and probably a few other
tricks that are still classified.
The RDX would certainly be useful as
a component of this.
But on the whole, we should be most
worried about terrorists stealing or
buying a whole nuclear warhead from
the 20-30000 (?) in the ex-USSR,
and disabling the various safety
mechanisms.
And in that case they might get an
H-bomb rather than just a fission bomb
- much much worse.
Posted by: Richard Cownie | Oct 25, 2004 12:45:05 AM
Al, you jackass, they could be used in a nuclear program, but fortunately they were under guard by the IAEA.
Posted by: praktike | Oct 25, 2004 12:45:09 AM
But wait, I thought there were no WMDs in Iraq! Could it be that the left-wing media has just been lying this entire time in order to steal the election for Kerry?
Mmmmm. Of course, those were weapons that the UN inspectors had identified and secured. So it's a good thing that Bush invaded, allowing the material to be looted, rather than trust those UN inspectors to identify and secure this kind of material.
Interestingly, by this standard for invasion, we should be storming Bulgaria any minute now. Or Romania. Or Iran.
Posted by: Andrew Edwards | Oct 25, 2004 1:00:45 AM
Next, I expect Al to claim that Saddam's pistol is evidence of a WMD program. High powered conventional explosives do not count as WMD any more than that pistol does.
Posted by: washerdreyer | Oct 25, 2004 1:01:27 AM
Plutonium bombs must use the implosion technique. The lens geometry for implosion is still considered to be perhaps the most classified part of the implosion design.
A uranium weapon can use either implosion or the 'gun' geometry.
How easy is a 'gun' geometry uranium bomb to build? Consider this fact: the builders of the first atomic bombs were so confident that the gun design would work, that they didn't build one for test, as they did for the plutonium bomb. They just built the uranium bomb, and dropped it on Hiroshima. Obviously, it worked the first time.
A good lay overview of bomb design is Ted Taylor's "Curve of Binding Energy." The seminal historical presentation is still considered to be "The Making of the Atomic Bomb" by Richard Rhodes. Robert Serber's "The Los Alamos Primer: The First Lectures on How to Build an Atomic Bomb" (current list price $34.95) has most of the necessary details.
Of course, most of the details are also on the net if one is persistent enough to dig them out, and willing to seperate the 'wheat from the chaff.'
So, the question is, why hasn't a terrorist organization built one yet? The single biggest inhibiting factor is readily available weapons grade uranium in sufficient amounts.
Posted by: Scott | Oct 25, 2004 1:04:07 AM
I replied to Al's post out of exam-time irritability, but I'm disappointed the rest of you also responded while I was googling for explosive manufacturers in disreputable-sounding countries.
You've just seen iteration #1 of the Republican spin. "Knock them off the STAGGERING INEPTITUDE of letting this explosive material walk away by getting them to re-focus on the WMD issue." Come on, guys, keep your eyes on the "Bush is a stupendously bad president" ball.
Posted by: Andrew Edwards | Oct 25, 2004 1:05:02 AM
That is they were under the gaze of IAEA until the US invaded and conveniently let god knows whom run off with the whole MF lot. Some explosives pack more blast per size than others. The stuff they stole is dangerous precisely because a little goes a long way. Instead of needing a Tim McVeigh Ryder truck size bomb to take down a building, our enemies in Iraq can now do it with a VW.
It was totally incompetent not to secure all weapons after the invasion.
As John Kerry tells the RollingStone:
RS What's your take on Rumsfeld?
JFK: He should have been fired long ago.
RS: For?
JFK: Gross miscalculation in the judgements he made in taking a nation to war; for not having done the planning; for not having guarded the ammo dumps; for not having guarded the chemical plants; for not having closed off the borders; for not having built up an alliance with Turkey; for not having brought the Fourth Infantry Division down from the north; for not- any number of calculations.
RS: Gross Incompetence?
JFK: Absolutely, unbelievably [slams table] unaccountable administration of things that have cost America untold millions of dollars. But, most important, life.
Posted by: bakho | Oct 25, 2004 1:05:23 AM
The ground war in Iraq has caused literally thousands of pointless Western casualties. We should've just carpet bombed Iraq until there was nothing left but smoldering ashes, Zionist settlers, and Halliburton. 25 million Iraqnids aren't worth the life of 1 American patriot, let alone 1000.
Posted by: Modern Crusader | Oct 25, 2004 1:05:52 AM
You are missing the point. These are highly powerful explosives. You want a dense material that is small in volume but extremely powerful. That means the insurgents and terrorist now have an almost unlimited supply of material for any type of conventional bomb. In fact, this stuff has probably already been used this last year in killing our troops.
Also, think about how easy it would be to smuggle this stuff into the United States. They could destroy a building like The Oklahoma City bombing, which took and entire van of chemicals, with just a large suit case of this stuff. It's that nasty.
We are less secure because of this administration.
Posted by: Rook | Oct 25, 2004 1:10:58 AM
Vaughn Hopkins
High explosives are not needed for uranium bombs. A cannon is used to fire a uranium bullet into a uranium target at high speed. The cannon requires a rapidly burning propellant, not an explosive. Plutonium bombs require precisely shaped and detonated explosives surrounding the fuel and forming a lense to focus a shock wave to compress the fuel to critical mass. I suspect simple availability of the explosives is a minor part of the problem compared to getting the shapes and burn rates right.
The trade offs: bomb grade uranium is very difficult to enrich, but the bomb is easy to make, Plutonium must be make in a reactor but is easy to extract and purify via chemical means, but the bomb is difficult to make.
Posted by: Robert Brown | Oct 25, 2004 1:11:16 AM
Many good comments here, and Robert Brown seems to know what he's talking about. Allow me to add that dirty bombs are unlikely to be especially lethal, and that plutonium is not at all suitable for that application. Reactor waste would be better.
Shouldn't we simply ignore Al, though? It's not productive to argue with street people, either.
Posted by: bad Jim | Oct 25, 2004 3:09:46 AM
I don't think this is going to be a big story in the media. The New York Times has it, but everybody else is avoiding it. Most media outlets hate being scooped, and carrying this story means admitting the New York Times beat them to something important.
Those who recall how much pressure it took to force the mainstream media to pay attention to Trent Lott's racist connections know what to do next.
Posted by: Dan Ryan | Oct 25, 2004 3:13:03 AM
Juan Cole, as usual, has some trenchant comments on this situation:
But the dual-use equipment, which has applications in nuclear weapons construction, has disappeared. (Hmm. I wonder which neighbor of Iraq might be desperately at work on a nuclear bomb and might be willing to pay top dollar for such equipment?)
Posted by: bad Jim | Oct 25, 2004 4:25:46 AM
Well,
Gore Vidal once wrote: the war on drugs has nothing at all to do with drugs. It is part of an all-out war on the American people by a government interested only in control.
So, why do you assume that the war on terra should have something to do with explosives?
Posted by: abb1 | Oct 25, 2004 4:44:38 AM
YOU PEOPLE ARE NUTCASES.
High-explosives are about as close to nuclear weapons as gunpowder is.
Without uranium 235, or Plutonium you just don't have a nuclear weapon.
High-explosives = nuclear weapons = you are insane.
Posted by: Samuel | Oct 25, 2004 7:23:42 AM
bad jim
Even though dirty bombs would not be very lethal or spectacular, They would be very psychologically effective. People freak at all things radioactive.
Posted by: Robert Brown | Oct 25, 2004 7:35:49 AM
Allow me to add that dirty bombs are unlikely to be especially lethal, and that plutonium is not at all suitable for that application.
Allow me a little laugh. Plutonium is the most toxic chemical on the planet (and that is ignoring its radioactivity).
Just perfect for a dirty bomb.
Posted by: Samuel | Oct 25, 2004 7:39:02 AM
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