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Kilgore on Tom Frank and Explaining Gore's Defeat
There's a ton of good stuff in the current Blueprint, but let me especially recommend Ed Kilgore's review of What's The Matter With Kansas? which is fantastic except for his typically DLC insistence on mooting a monocausal account of Al Gore's 2000 defeat.
Here, for example, is one interesting factoid from CNN's 2000 exit polls which I may well abuse in a future article of my own: Twelve percent of the total electorate said "world affairs" were the most important issue in 2000, of which 54 percent voted for Bush and just 40 percent voted for Gore (1 percent Buchanan and 4 percent Nader). In other words, even in a campaign where national security played almost no role, Gore lost because Democrats were perceived as soft on defense. Indeed, a strikingly large 47 percent of the population reported the belief that the military got weaker under Bill Clinton, while just 17 percent said it got stronger. Since, as evidenced by its performance in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US military is strong indeed, this is a remarkable political vulnerability for Gore to have developed. Bush got 72 percent of those who said it became weaker, and only a quarter of those who said it got stronger or remained the same.
Unrelated exit poll fun fact -- according to CNN the proportion of the electorate that attends church "never" or "seldom" is exactly the same size as the proportion who attends church once a week or more (42 percent for each). Gore won the former groups and Bush won the latter -- do the Republicans have a secular problem?
October 13, 2004 | Permalink
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Comments
do the Republicans have a secular problem?
When they start losing elections, yes.
Posted by: WillieStyle | Oct 13, 2004 5:55:10 PM
No, no. Republicans can't have a "problem", because they're just normal folks. It's the secular voters who have a problem. Non-Christians are alien creatures bent on stealing our women and devouring our young.
Posted by: Nick Simmonds | Oct 13, 2004 6:11:23 PM
as evidenced by its performance in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US military is strong indeed
That wasn't the question and you know it. The military can be strong, and yet still have weakened under Clinton.
Better angle is to say that GHWBush began the weakening of the military, which was entirely justified by the perceived lack of threat.
Posted by: Al | Oct 13, 2004 6:37:32 PM
do the Republicans have a secular problem?
Good question. Do Democrats have a white problem?
Posted by: Al | Oct 13, 2004 6:38:40 PM
Rather defensive and sloppily reasoned as a review, I think. But that's always the way with the DLC, people to their left make them a lot more nervous than people to their right. That's true of a lot of people unfortunately.
Posted by: david | Oct 13, 2004 7:17:22 PM
Without a breakdown of the 12% who believed that world affairs were the most important issue of an election where virtually no one believed that, this factoid is nearly useless. One suspects that 12% was dominated by neocons, Cubans, and other voters that Democrats have little chance of winning no matter what, so I'm not sure I feel enlightened by this knowledge.
Posted by: Joe Schmoe | Oct 13, 2004 7:18:11 PM
Kilgore hits it out of the park.
The thing that has always attracted me to the DLC has been its long-term emphasis on, as Kilgore says, arguing "for a "values centrism" aimed at detoxifying the culture wars."
If the Democratic Party can de-emphasize its identification with latte drinking, Birkenstock wearing, Volvo driving, coastal elites, it stands a much better chance of reconnecting on economic populism grounds with the exact voters Frank correctly sees them as having lost.
(And that's why I stood with Johnny Edwards during the primaries...)
Posted by: Petey | Oct 13, 2004 7:20:06 PM
Actually I though that review was crap. Besides the fact that we've all moved on from WTHWK, it's the most ridiculous gloss-over of the changing economic/class orientation of the Dems. What about NAFTA? etc. Sure, there was growth under Clinton, but the working class's share was insignificant compared to the already wealthy. Besides, they were the ones that got squeezed to provide all that wonderful capital growth anyway. And I too, despite being an urbanized, latte-drinking, birkenstock wearing, ex-Kansan, supported Edwards in the primaries.
Posted by: McKS | Oct 13, 2004 7:38:58 PM
"Sure, there was growth under Clinton, but the working class's share was insignificant compared to the already wealthy."
The Clinton administration is the only administration since LBJ to raise real incomes among the lowest 20% of the economic scale.
I don't mind the rich getter richer as long as the poor get richer too.
Posted by: Petey | Oct 13, 2004 7:58:20 PM
If the Democratic Party can de-emphasize its identification with latte drinking, Birkenstock wearing, Volvo driving, coastal elites,
... then the Democrats will face a vicious fight in the primaries every year with challenges from candidates that the latte drinking, birkenstock wearing, volvo driving coastal elites DO identify with. Because, you know, the Republicans attract lots of votes because they've de-emphasized their identification with Big Business.
snicker.
Posted by: Constantine | Oct 13, 2004 8:02:48 PM
do the Republicans have a secular problem?
You're damn right they do. I'm speaking mostly out of frustration here, but if I have to hear GOD one more time this campaign I'm going to chuck somthing at my T.V. Here is a hint to both parties, what's the fastest growing "Religion" in the country?(Hint, it isn't one that's a religion).
Posted by: theEnvoy | Oct 13, 2004 8:09:21 PM
"then the Democrats will face a vicious fight in the primaries every year with challenges from candidates that the latte drinking, birkenstock wearing, volvo driving coastal elites DO identify with."
Happily, a majority of the Democratic coastal elites has no problem with a candidate of stylistic social moderation like Edwards.
The stylistically social lefty candidates like Dean or Bradley or Brown have trouble getting more than a third of the primary vote.
Posted by: Petey | Oct 13, 2004 8:52:22 PM
I did think it was notable that Bush said that people should be free to worship however they want or not worship at all. Previously, I've heard him talking a lot about the importance of faith, and talking about how all faiths have something to offer, whether Christian, Jewish, Muslim, or whatever (but Moonies are the best since they funnel money from people into Republican-boosting institutions!), but usually he seems to all-but imply that those without faith are incapable of compassion or principle. Perhaps Bush IS worried about the Republicans' secular problem.
Posted by: Julian Elson | Oct 14, 2004 12:06:26 AM
I think your reading of the exit polls is suspect.
In a year where national security didn't matter much, Gore lost the debate among people *who care about world affairs*. But Gore didn't have any successful wedge issues on world affairs. No one really cared deeply about the War in Bosnia, a lot of people were unhappy about the Mexico bailout, a lot of Cubans were unhappy about Elian Gonzalez, etc ... who, exactly, had a positive reason to support Clinton-Gore on any specific world affairs issue. No one recognized that the Treasury's work was related to world affairs, so all those voters went into the "economy" column.
Posted by: niq | Oct 14, 2004 1:52:27 AM
I thought Gore lost cause he was a prick. Kerry looks fine, presidential, electable on TV. Gore at the debatesmade squirmy, smarmy, sneering GWB seem like the more likeable man.
Posted by: Ikram | Oct 14, 2004 8:20:49 AM
Did Clinton weaken the military?
Hell yes he did.
He left the military without body armor and without armored Humvees, such that the military wasn't able to invade Iraq without needlessly risking the lives of our soldiers. He left the military in that shape despite adopting "regime change" as the goal of US policy in Iraq, and despite military confrontations with Iraq throughout his term in office.
I mean, is it the position of the Democrats that the military was under-equipped when it went into Iraq, isn't it? I could swear I heard John Kerry claim just that. It put me in mind of Al Franken's conversation with Wolfowitz some time ago. I think Wolfowitz's should have been: "Hell yes, it was Bill Clinton's army--that's why so many troops have been injured and so many have died! But we're working every day to turn that situation around!"
Don't worry--John Kerry may be able to win by lying this time, but he'll reap the whirlwind. Every soldier who dies on his watch will be one more point on the other side, every decision made in the field will be second-guessed, every day that bin Laden or any other signifant target eludes capture will be one more mark of failure. He's raised the bar, and he'll never be able to reach it.
Posted by: Thomoas | Oct 14, 2004 7:04:58 PM
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