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Brooks on Israel/Palestine
I'm not quite sure I grasp what's supposed to be going on here. Most notably peace has not, in fact, broken out between the Israelis and the Palestinians. The hopeful signs we're seeing lately are just signs that we may see a return to peace talks. But of course the failure to have such talks is precisely what critics of the Bush Israel policy have been criticizing Bush for. The proximate cause of all this is that with Arafat dead, the Bush/Sharon policy of not negotiating with Arafat is non-operative. But if Bush and Sharon had never adopted that policy, we could have had hopeful talks years ago. Maybe those talks would have come to nothing, but maybe (indeed, I would say "probably") they will still come to nothing now.
But what really needs commenting on here is Brooks' dishonest take on Israel's security wall, which Brooks defends on the grounds that it has been successful in reducing the incidence of anti-Israeli violence. And, indeed, it has done this. But the subject of controversy regarding the line wasn't over its existence it was over its location. A wall built to defend Israel proper would have met with no opposition from me or most other responsible critics of Bush and Sharon. Indeed, such a wall combined with a withdrawal of Israeli forces and settlers to behind a defensible, wall-guarded border is roughly speaking what we critics have been asking for. The wall that's being built, however, snakes to-and-fro through the West Bank, linking up settlements and slicing the Palestinian territory into non-viable bits. Many of us have somehow gotten this notion into our heads that this means Sharon intends to leave the West Bank settlements where they are, continue to defend them, and slice Palestinian territory up into a bunch of non-viable bits. Now maybe we're wrong. I hope we're wrong. I suspect Bush has it in his power to ensure that we're proved wrong, and I hope he'll exercise that power. But from where I sit we don't seem wrong, and if we're right there will be no peace.
December 21, 2004 | Permalink
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Comments
I'm not quite sure I grasp what's supposed to be going on here.
He's making fun of you. Just thought you should know.
Posted by: Al | Dec 21, 2004 3:26:44 PM
I don't know what's so confusing about it: it's just propoganda in the form of bad counterfactual argumentation. Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a very popular tactic for leaders who get lucky after stumbling along: "look, you said it was a mistake, but the worst didn't happen! I was Right!" ignores the fact that other possible outcomes could have been better, or that the likelihood of the worst happening was much higher with the chosen course v. the opposition options.
It's a false dilemma. Not worth wondering about at all.
Posted by: Jonathan Dresner | Dec 21, 2004 3:35:12 PM
Interesting that Bush's policy of sitting on his
ass for years doing nothing and waiting for
Arafat to die can now be hailed as a brilliant
masterstroke, and yet it never occurred to him to
wait for Saddam to die, rather than rushing our
whole army into Baghdad to get blown up with
carbombs, IEDs, and mortars.
Posted by: Richard Cownie | Dec 21, 2004 4:00:40 PM
Why does David Brooks hate the Israeli Supreme Court?
Posted by: praktike | Dec 21, 2004 4:01:28 PM
One other point, on this: But the subject of controversy regarding the line wasn't over its existence it was over its location.
I see. It's an "apartheid wall" where it is, but wouldn't be a couple of miles to the west.
Nuh-uh. The "controversy" (such that it is) is over the existance of the wall. Because a wall in a location that Matthew requires would be pointless.
Posted by: Al | Dec 21, 2004 4:04:53 PM
The "controversy" (such that it is) is over the existance of the wall
Not according to the ICJ ruling Brooks derides, or any Palestinian activist I have spoken too (and there are many). I went and saw the fence, in its fence section, where it follows the Green Line. And despite the barriers on Palestinian labor, etc, everyone in the area (full of leftist kibbutzim and Arab villages) agreed it seems unquestionably fair. The massive wall shutting off Qalqilya, on the other hand, is another conceptual universe, and Brooks knows it.
Posted by: Ruth | Dec 21, 2004 4:27:50 PM
I hate to quote the President, or to defend Brooks, but, you don't negotiate with yourself. The final border is to be determined by negotiation. If the Israelis built the wall on the 1948 Armistice line that would be where the negotiations started.
More broadly, as I've said in this and other fora, we need to assume that the Palestinians made a rational calculation about their self-interest in turning down the Clinton-Barak deal including subsequent elaborations. Which is to say, they believed they could do better in the future. Which is to say, they believed time was on their side. Which may be right. The only sensible way to negotatiate with an adversary who believes time is on his side is to put into place policies, if you have the power to do so, that tend to make his position worse over time, and so persuade him that time isn't necessarily on his side.
That's what the Isrealis are doing. That's what you would do if you were them.
And Matt, I can't remotely fathom why you believe productive talks were possible with Arafat in the picture. One of the most interesting things that's happened since he's died has been the dramatic change in tone of Palestinian TV, with much less inflammatory rhetoric. That implies that Abbas et al. have put a stop to it. Which raises the distinct possibility that someone was preventing them from putting a stop to it previously. I wonder who that could have been?
Posted by: larry birnbaum | Dec 21, 2004 4:33:15 PM
I hate to quote the President, or to defend Brooks, but, you don't negotiate with yourself. The final border is to be determined by negotiation. If the Israelis built the wall on the 1948 Armistice line that would be where the negotiations started.
So, the wall really should have been built along the Jordanian border, since, after all, that's the farthest extent of what Israel claims it must retain as a minimum, non-negotiable, security guarantee?
Posted by: cmdicely | Dec 21, 2004 4:43:30 PM
I would not do this if I were Israeli. Qalqilya is wrong.
Posted by: praktike | Dec 21, 2004 4:43:45 PM
Not according to the ICJ ruling Brooks derides, or any Palestinian activist I have spoken too (and there are many).
Well, duh.
Posted by: Al | Dec 21, 2004 4:49:37 PM
Larry Birnbaum, if you want to negotiate where the border should be, and you want a wall there ahead of time, you should build a portable wall.
The idea of negotiating the border is silly. If there's going to be a peace, the border will be the Green Line. Are these Vichy frenchmen they're negotiating with?
What they'll negotiate if they actually have a real negotiation is not the border, it's security and water rights.
Will israel allow palestine to manage their own borders? What if they smuggle in antitank weapons, that would make it more expensive for israel to invade them again?
Will israel have the right to fly over palestinian airspace at will? Will they have the right to bomb targets in palestine without prior notification?
Will israel have the right to expel their arab citizens to palestine?
Israel needs a way to handle security concerns far more than they need part of the west bank. If they try to keep part of the land, how can they expect to get a peace agreement? Trying to negotiate how far to move the wall is a sign they aren't serious at all.
Posted by: J Thomas | Dec 21, 2004 5:21:22 PM
This doesn't seem to be fair, either.
As far as Brooks is concerned, the last time he wrote a column about "good news coming out of the ME" (about the effects of the fence and the disengagement plan) was in May, during "Operation Rainbow", in which over 60 Palestinians were killed, including 14 children, a crowd of demonstrators were shelled, over 120 homes were destroyed, leaving hundreds of Palestinians homeless, and which resulted in the US failing to veto a security council resolution condemning Israel for the incursion.
Says something about his perspective.
Posted by: sofia | Dec 21, 2004 6:09:31 PM
Thanks for posting on this as well. The best post on this is over at www.juancole.com. Dr. Cole had every right to blast Dishonest David for this oped but the good professor kept his cool as usual.
Posted by: pgl | Dec 21, 2004 7:14:27 PM
[[
I suspect Bush has it in his power to ensure that we're proved wrong, and I hope he'll exercise that power.
]]
Hmmm. What power exactly does Bush have to influence Israeli policy?
Is there any plausible thing he could do, meaning given what we know about his philosophies, his position and his perception of his position, is it even imaginable that GWB somehow could alter Israeli policy?
Posted by: Michael Ivanovich | Dec 21, 2004 7:18:40 PM
What power exactly does Bush have to influence Israeli policy?
Well, there is the several billion in annual US aid and, more importantly perhaps, the US implied security guarantees to Israel. That's a mighty big friggin' lever if any President were to choose to apply it.
Posted by: cmdicely | Dec 21, 2004 7:26:32 PM
Well, duh
I always like when people allege that the entire hidden motive of campaigns for Palestinian rights is further erosion of Israeli lives and eventually, ending the state itself. You know, Al, you're probably right, it's not like there's any kind of legitimate grievances there, things they could rightly be mad about. Damn that Arab anti-Semitism, and I guess the residual Nazism on the ICJ.
(Most activists who don't believe in the state of Israel tell you so to your face. I at least find the honesty refreshing as compared to arguing to my right with Monsieur Brooks' ilk, not to say they make any more sense.)
The border won't be the Green Line exactly; plans like Geneva use a 1:1 land exchange ratio switching the settlements outside Jerusalem for the agricultural land east of Gaza. As for Mr Birnbaum's contention that they could get better than Camp David, it was clearly true that Israel had more to give, as evidenced by progress at Sharm el Sheikh that October and Taba the following January. Arafat rubber-stamped Geneva and Abu Mazen has previously put his name on proposals less generous to the Palestinians, so why waste time and, say, people's livelihood and free movement and any remaining increments of good will, when we could close the deal? Could it be that Sharon is not the devoted man of peace and vision Bush so assures us he is?
Posted by: Ruth | Dec 21, 2004 7:44:48 PM
Ruth asks: Could it be that Sharon is not the devoted man of peace and vision Bush so assures us he is?.
Certainly that's true.
But he's hardly the only major player in the region wish similar issues.
Here's another: "Cracking down on Hamas, Jihad and the Palestinian organizations is not an option at all," [Mahmoud] Abbas said...
Which is interesting, because Mahmoud Abbas has also said:
"We do not accept any buts," Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas said Saturday in an interview with Egyptian state television. "The road map must be accepted as it is, from A to Z, with all its conditions and all its stages, and any changes to the text will definitely not be accepted."
Phase 1 Security Condition of the Road Map:
Palestinians declare an unequivocal end to violence and terrorism and undertake visible efforts on the ground to arrest, disrupt, and restrain individuals and groups conducting and planning violent attacks on Israelis anywhere.
I guess he does accept some "buts" after all.
Posted by: SoCalJustice | Dec 21, 2004 8:00:17 PM
Come on, guys, don't you know that Bobo is
just another part of the Wurlitzer; seeking
to praise the Chimperor whenever possible,
however inappropriate the situation.
Posted by: Self-Negotiator | Dec 21, 2004 8:18:34 PM
"What power exactly does Bush have to influence Israeli policy?"
That's easy, all he has to do is nothing. The UN Security Council would have long ago pass a tough binding resolution against Israel but for the fact the US stands ready to veto it. The big stick Bush has (and Congress has no say in the matter) is merely to hint that if the Security Council wants to put sanctions on Israel, then the US will abstain.
Posted by: beowulf | Dec 21, 2004 8:37:12 PM
Dear J, it's already clear that the border won't be on the 1948 Armistice line. For example, many chunks of Jerusalem, but elsewhere too. See Ruth's posting. As for your other questions -- legitimate concerns all. Which will need to be negotiated.
Ruth, I don't believe I said anything about Sharon's intentions (or at least his desires) anywhere in my posting. Israel's a democracy so in the long run his intentions don't matter as much as the intentions of the majority of Israelis. Unfortunately I don't see any similar capacity to "close the deal" as you put it on the Palestinian side -- and I'm even more mystified by your belief that this was possible in the recent past than I am by Matt's that serious negotations were possible -- but perhaps Arafat in death will be able to accomplish what he couldn't quite do in life and this will actually come about.
Posted by: larry birnbaum | Dec 21, 2004 9:54:27 PM
J. Thomas:
The idea of negotiating the border is silly. If there's going to be a peace, the border will be the Green Line. Are these Vichy frenchmen they're negotiating with?
The border will never be at the Green Line. It should have been but it won't be. Yet there may eventually be something close to peace. Behold the real world: law and justice do not always triumph in the end; sometimes the stronger party simply prevails, and the weaker party is forced to capitulate. That is tragic and deplorable. But I no longer see any realistic possibility of the obvious two-state settlement that has been on the international table since 1967 becoming a reality.
The Palestinians thought they had an agreement in principle at the time of the Oslo accords, that was supposed to achieve the implementation of UN242, according to which the Green Line would be the basis for a settlement based on the principle of the "equal exchange of territories" - that is, if the Israelies were to keep X% of the West Bank, the Palestinians would get X% from the Israeli side of the Green Line in return.
But when they got to Camp David, it turned out that neither the Israeli opponents nor the American referees were unwilling to play by the rules of that game. The referees were on the other team's side, and the Israelis simply wanted to bargain over what percentage of illegally boosted West Bank territories they would get to keep. When the Palestinians attempted to get agreement to the equal exchange of teritories principle before negotiating the border, Clinton in effect told them to go fuck themselves, and that this wasn't the UN.
Arafat thought Camp David came too soon. He suspected the two parties were too far apart going in, and that nothing the Israelis were likely to offer would be something something he could sell to his own people. This confirmed it.
The talks failed. The Americans and the Israelis agreed to blame Arafat for the failure; agreed to refer perversely to Israeli proposals to return a percentage of ripped off territory as a "magnanimous offer"; agreed to blame and ridicule the victims yet again as a nation of idiots who "never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." Sharon then took his walk on the Temple Mount and that was the end of the "peace process."
Bush has since then been following the "let Sharon win" strategy that was articulated by his neocon supporters at the start of his administration. Unsurprisingly, since the United States is the only country with the power to stop him, he is winning. Perhaps he has already won.
My dreary prediction: The Palestinians will never get back the stuff they have lost to the other side of the barrier. Some final surrender agreement will eventually be concluded. The West Bank will be divided up into a few remaining fragments for a nominal Palestinian state under Israeli overlordship. Eventually many Palestinians will simply move away, just as many Jews did when they realized the Romans had won. Parts of the wall will eventually come down, but only so the settlements can expand further by "natural growth" into more of Palestine. By then, no one will care anymore.
Brooks is betting that with the old man finally gone, his Israeli confinement ended by death and his personal humiliation thus no longer at issue, the Palestinians will use the opportunity to read the writing on the wall and give up. He is simply celebrating the impending Israeli victory.
Ever the pop culture maven, he gloatingly and irreverantly describes a series of "unfortunate events" leading, mysteriously and unexpectedly and to the great embarrassment of G.W.'s naysayers, to a "hopeful moment" with peace in the offing. But of course they have lead to a hopeful moment! The unfortunate events he describes are a series of Israeli victories in battle leading toward their ultimate victory in the war. When the surrender of the vanquished is at hand, the victors are always hopeful. My uncle was on the USS Missouri when the Japanese surrendered to McArthur and the US. I'm sure he found it a hopeful moment.
One might compare Brooks's attitude to one who argues: "The naysayers criticized the Americans who accomplished the ethnic cleansing of the Native Americans, and who launched the Indian wars. And yet, here it is the year 2004 and guess what? No more Indian problem! We are at peace with the Native Americans - or what's left of them. The naysayers were wrong. the Indian fighters were right. How hopeful I feel!"
Posted by: Dan Kervick | Dec 21, 2004 11:30:04 PM
Dan, find me the place in UNSC res 242 where the words "equal exchange of territories" or any near approximation thereof are inscribed. Hint: you can give up eventually. The ambiguity of 242 and the sharply contrasting official positions each side has taken on its wording were not only well-known by all but deliberate at the time of its passage, and if anyone is stretching their interpretation it's the Palestinians, who projected themselves into the language where they before were absent. If you think the green line border and the land exchange ratio, which didn't even come up in diplomacy until Beilin-Abu Mazen '95, were some kind of assumption underlying Oslo perhaps you should whip out a copy and reread.
Meanwhile the nefarious Barak did, in fact, go from accepting a 9:1 exchange ratio at Camp David in July to 3:1 by the time of the December Clinton Parameters, and 1:1 got floated at Taba in January although it's even more shrouded in ambiguity. I just don't really by the "no Israeli leader ever intended a Palestinian state" idea, it's just a question of degree of reluctance to make it happen.
Posted by: Ruth | Dec 22, 2004 2:07:45 AM
Dan,
Since Ruth did an admirable job in answering your posting, I'll simply note your typo in writing about "the obvious two-state settlement that has been on the international table since 1967..."
Of course, you meant to type "1948." Or perhaps earlier.
Selective historical context is as bad as no context.
Posted by: larry birnbaum | Dec 22, 2004 8:19:13 AM
Ruth, the 242 calls for withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict. What do you think it means? If you're talking about the missing 'the', then what do you think this phrase means? Where's the ambiguity you are talking about? Do you think a reasonable person may read withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict and not be clear on what it means?
Israel invaded Egypt, Jordan and Syria in 1967 and occupied territories that didn't belong to Israel. 242 says that acquisition of territory by war is inadmissible and tells Israel to get out of there. That should've happened in November 1967 and that's all there is to it, it's that simple.
And as far as 'equal exchange of territories' is concerned, any two countries can exchange territories, no special permission required and this has nothing to do with ending the occupation.
As far as the wall built on the occupied territories goes, as you know it has recently been ruled illegal by the ICJ: International court rules against Israel's wall, so what else is there to talk about?
Reading the ruling, Judge Shi Jiuyong said that 14 out of the 15 judges had agreed the barrier was illegal, and called on the UN to take action to stop further building work on it.
"The court is of the view that the UN, and especially the general assembly and the security council, should consider what further action is required to bring to an end the illegal situation resulting from the construction of the wall," he said.
14 judges who understand the law and the situation on the ground - and, presumably understand these things in great detail - agreed that the wall is illegal. Is there ambiguity in this too, in your opinion? If so, could you name some international phenomenon that is NOT ambiguous in your view - just to understand the extent of clarity you require?
Thanks.
Posted by: abb1 | Dec 22, 2004 9:35:58 AM
Dear abb1, well, it does always seem simple to you, at least where Israel is concerned. Some of the land that Israel occupied in 1967 (Sinai & Golan) were sovereign territory of other states (Egypt & Syria). Others weren't (Gaza and the West Bank). The West Bank, in particular, was conquered by Jordan in 1948 and subsequently annexed by them. (Egypt didn't annex Gaza although it occupied it for the following 19 years.) As you put it so well, "acquisition of territory by war is inadmissable."
I won't even bother with your characterization of the 1967 War as an invasion. As I said to Dan: selective historical context is as bad as no context. In your case, I'd say worse. Your selective outrage at Israel's actions (or perhaps even its existence) is quite extraordinary.
Posted by: larry birnbaum | Dec 22, 2004 9:53:30 AM
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