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Anti-Choice Senators And National Security

Ack. I was so busy making what I thought was a clever, complicated point about Chuck Schumer's recruitment of pro-life Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island that I didn't say anything about the underlying issue.

I can certainly see the case for running pro-life Democrats in, say, Oklahoma. In certain states, you're bound to get a pro-life Senator one way or the other, so it makes sense to take abortion rights off the table and try to fight for other priorities, including perhaps the other issues in the reproductive freedom package. But neither Rhode Island nor Pennsylvania actually seem to fit the bill. Pennsylvania has supported Kerry, Gore, and Clinton in all its recent presidential elections and has a pro-choice Republican Senator. It seems inconceivable that you can't find a pro-choice candidate capable of beating Rick Santorum.

Since Santorum is an almost uniquely loathsome figure in the Senate, I would imagine that people who care about choice will, in the end, rally around Bob Casey if he gets the nomination. Rhode Island, however, is another matter entirely. For the Democrats to nominate an anti-choice candidate to run against a pro-choice Republican in a blue state is asking the Democrats' pro-choice community to swallow an awfully big and awkwardly shaped pill. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see normally loyal Democrats voting for Chaffee under those circumstances. More broadly, if I may quote myself:

Certainly there are ways that John Kerry could have won the 2004 election without improving his performance on security issues, most notably by doing better than a dismal 18 percent among the 22 percent of voters who told exit pollsters that “moral values” were the most important issue in the campaign. But there’s a basic problem of logic here. Voters who think that maintaining traditional norms about gender roles and sexual behavior should be a top priority of the federal government probably ought to be voting Republican. This just isn’t what liberals believe, so people who do believe it would be acting irrationally to vote Democratic.

But Kerry’s 40 percent share among the third of the electorate citing either Iraq or terrorism as their top concern is another matter entirely. Liberals most emphatically do believe that the government should keep the population safe from foreign threats. Voters who think that this is important are voters that any self-respecting political party ought to aspire to win. And if Democrats do figure out how to win their votes, they’ll start winning presidential elections. Mere parity on the topic of national security would have won Kerry the election, rendering whatever other political problems exist with the Democrats on matters of style or substance irrelevant.

There's a strong impulse in the air to try and make gays, lesbians, and women pay the price for the Democrats' inability to come to grips with the national security issue and it's just very wrong on a whole number of levels. During the 1990s when foreign policy was off the table, Bill Clinton had no trouble running and winning on a pro-choice, mildly gay-friendly platform. What changed since then was 9/11 and the fact that all of a sudden people care more about issues of war and peace. That is what needs to be addressed. Instead, the party's near-compulsive desire to not confront these issues is pushing more and more people to throw important stuff out the window in a slapdash and cruel way.

February 24, 2005 | Permalink

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» Abortion and the run to the center from Something Requisitely Witty and Urbane
Matt Yglesias had some interesting things to say, earlier in the week about Chuck Schumer trying to recruit pro-life Democrats to run for Senate in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island:I can certainly see the case for running pro-life Democrats in, say, [Read More]

Tracked on Feb 26, 2005 1:26:59 PM

» Rarities: a politician beholden only to his const from The Disenchanted Forest
I'm nowhere as eloquent as Albert but I stand in full agreement with his assessment of Chuck Pennacchio and the need for more (potential) leaders like him. Pennacchio gets funding for his campaign from grass-roots efforts (real ones, not ones cooked ... [Read More]

Tracked on Sep 30, 2005 4:34:34 PM

» Rarities: a politician beholden only to his const from The Disenchanted Forest
I'm nowhere as eloquent as Albert but I stand in full agreement with his assessment of Chuck Pennacchio and the need for more (potential) leaders like him. Pennacchio gets funding for his campaign from grass-roots efforts (real ones, not ones cooked ... [Read More]

Tracked on Sep 30, 2005 4:36:33 PM

» Rarities: a politician beholden only to his const from The Disenchanted Forest
I'm nowhere as eloquent as Albert but I stand in full agreement with his assessment of Chuck Pennacchio and the need for more (potential) leaders like him. Pennacchio gets funding for his campaign from grass-roots efforts (real ones, not ones cooked ... [Read More]

Tracked on Sep 30, 2005 4:41:40 PM

Comments

Schumer was on The Daily Show right after the 2004 election, and when Jon Stewart mentioned how badly the Democrats got creamed, somewhere in there the issue of gays, etc. came up, and Schumer rather chillingly said that they'd have to re-examine a lot of things.

It also came out after the election that Bill Clinton had advised John Kerry to not only come out against gay marriage, but to also say he was against civil unions, as well.

I can say without a doubt that if Kerry had done as Clinton had advised, the Kerry/Edwards sign in my yard would have been removed quicker than you can snap your fingers. And if the Democrats really start abandoning their progressive principles, then I guess I'll just be sitting-out the next few elections.

Then again, maybe I'm in the minority?

Posted by: Matt (not MY) | Feb 24, 2005 4:31:25 PM

"During the 1990s when foreign policy was off the table, Bill Clinton had no trouble running and winning on a pro-choice, mildly gay-friendly platform."

And during the 1990s when foreign policy was off the table, Republicans had no trouble winning the House and Senate, mainly on values issues.

Thinking foreign policy is more important politically than values is Matthew's version of the Pundit's Fallacy: my issue is the only crucial issue.

Opening the Democrats' tent to pro-life voices is an important strategic step, much as the Republicans are doing in reverse by promoting Schwarzenegger and Giuliani.

Posted by: Petey | Feb 24, 2005 4:39:41 PM

Clinton had no trouble in '92? Wouldn't he have lost without Perot?

I agree w/ you that the Dems shouldn't sell out its gays, lesbians, and women. And I'm glad that public attitudes are slowly and steadily liberalizing on many of these issues (we couldn't have gay people on tv 20 years ago, even 10 years ago.)

And I agree that the Dems need to beef up on national security (both image and substance). They need to start using the E word, empire (or I word, imperialism), to explain that there are real grievances that many people all over the world have against the US government. But I'll say the same thing I said about economic populism, the Dems have been complicit in pursuing terrorist-producing imperialistic policies (both military and economic) for the same reasons (floods of corporate money into the party). They will only be pushed from the grassroots.

Posted by: Phil | Feb 24, 2005 4:41:01 PM

It is about the budget. Being pro-life is a lot cheaper and preserves more pork and avoids tax increases as opposed to hawkishness and muscular foreign policy.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Feb 24, 2005 4:44:44 PM

"It also came out after the election that Bill Clinton had advised John Kerry to not only come out against gay marriage, but to also say he was against civil unions, as well."

Completely and utterly false.

Clinton urged Kerry to come out for some of the state anti-gay marriage referenda. And if Kerry had done so, he would have had a much better chance of winning the election.

"And if the Democrats really start abandoning their progressive principles, then I guess I'll just be sitting-out the next few elections. Then again, maybe I'm in the minority?"

You think embracing gay marriage might be a minority position?

I'll happily trade your vote for the votes of two white working class voters who stand with the Democrats on economics, but are uncomfortable with liberal social values.

At the end of the day, a Democratic Party organized around progressive social issues is going to be a permanent minority party, while a Democratic Party organized around progressive economic issues is going to be a permanent majority party. Take your pick.

Posted by: Petey | Feb 24, 2005 4:46:08 PM

"They need to start using the E word, empire (or I word, imperialism), to explain that there are real grievances that many people all over the world have against the US government."

Yeah! That's the ticket! That would be electoral magic, wouldn't it?

Posted by: Petey | Feb 24, 2005 4:47:37 PM

I believe whoever is running as the Republican in '08 will be running on Bush's "humble foreign policy" platform from 2000 after Iraq has gone to hell. Maybe it won't but I'd say it's way more likely than that suddenly Iraq is going to be something everyone is proud of.

It would be the ultimate irony if the Democrats jump in and start banging the drums about appeasement and such and I wouldn't be party to any of it, I'd sit home.

Posted by: Ed Marshall | Feb 24, 2005 4:48:49 PM

"During the 1990s when foreign policy was off the table, Bill Clinton had no trouble running and winning on a pro-choice, mildly gay-friendly platform."

I almost bought Matt's argument until I remembered that Clinton signed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996.

Posted by: Morris | Feb 24, 2005 4:48:52 PM

One obvious question is whether Petey's point about "opening the Democrats tent to pro-life voices is mutually exclusive of NOT "sell[ing] out its gays, lesbians, and women." Aren't there ways to do both of these, in particular becoming stronger on feminist issues other than abortion and creating room to maneuver on abortion? Creating room to maneuver doesn't equal giving up on Roe and Casey either.
I think part of the problem is that some voters can't conceptualize someone being pro-Women's rights and pro-Gay rights while taking strong national security positions, simply because propaganda has so associated those positions with weakness.

Posted by: washerdreyer | Feb 24, 2005 4:53:07 PM

Matt, not MY: I think you would not be in the minority were the Republicans not so . .. Bushian. And also were not the larger course of world affairs so deeply stressful to a lot of liberals. There are days, now, when certain principles seem more luxurious than others.

On the other hand, as obsessed with national security as I am, I too probably would have ripped off the Kerry pins had he come out against civil unions. As it happens, I have his exact same position on abortion. (And boy didn't it bother me when people made fun of him for being careful. When else are you supposed to be careful?!) I thought Senator Clinton's speech was just fine. I'd be more than willing to play along with the Kabukui theater, as MY calls it on tapped. The fact is, that while I am firmly politically pro-choice, I only have so much energy I'm willing to expend on it. I am much more willing to expend effort and energy defending gay rights. You could say I'm not just firmly pro-gay-rights, I'm energetically pro-gay rights. And I have a feeling there are a lot of Democrats like me, so HRC & CS are trying to realign their battles to better tap this energy.

The question here, though, is fundamentally one of geography: how blue are these states? What kind of blue are they? Is abortion really such a big issue in these states? If they're so blue, why do they have Republican senators in the first place?

The Kabuki theater only works if, while Michael Moore et al are loudly complaining about how conservative Kerry is, they had also kept working on getting out the vote. As it is, we still didn't get the vote out enough. I still haven't seen a good explanation of that.

Posted by: Saheli | Feb 24, 2005 4:53:46 PM

"I almost bought Matt's argument until I remembered that Clinton signed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996."

How was DOMA inconsistent with Matt's accurate description of Clinton's generally 'mildly gay-friendly platform'?

Posted by: Petey | Feb 24, 2005 4:56:12 PM

You could say I'm not just firmly pro-gay-rights, I'm energetically pro-gay rights. And I have a feeling there are a lot of Democrats like me, so HRC & CS are trying to realign their battles to better tap this energy.

Then again, reading these comments, maybe it's because I'm from the Bay area. .. .sigh.

Posted by: Saheli | Feb 24, 2005 4:57:22 PM

Petey said it, and I'll just repeat it:

At the end of the day, a Democratic Party organized around progressive social issues is going to be a permanent minority party, while a Democratic Party organized around progressive economic issues is going to be a permanent majority party. Take your pick.

Yep.
That's the ballgame, folks.

"Progressive principles" MUST start with progressive economics. If you want to trash social security, you're not a Democrat. You can be all over the place on foreign policy or gay rights or abortion, but economics is what the party has been about from 1896 to 1932 to 1964 to now.

Go google the "cross of gold" speech if you need some more inspiration.

Posted by: sean | Feb 24, 2005 5:01:03 PM

"But neither Rhode Island nor Pennsylvania actually seem to fit the bill. Pennsylvania has supported Kerry, Gore, and Clinton in all its recent presidential elections and has a pro-choice Republican Senator."

And Kerry won Pennsylvania by 2 points. And Kerry won Michigan by 2 points. And Kerry won Wisconsin by half a point.

Some of the most important Gore states are only tenuously in the blue column, mainly over values issues.

Posted by: Petey | Feb 24, 2005 5:01:22 PM

and, btw, economics is what the Republican party is all about at it's heart too. it's not a mistake that they talk anti-gay and abortion bullshit when they're running for election and as soon as they get elected forget about that and go right to work cutting taxes on the rich and gutting anything that helps working class people. There's a reason why Rudy Guiliani and Arnold exist but any Republicans who ok a tax hike or a welfare program get SLAMMED immediately by grover norquist et al.

Posted by: sean | Feb 24, 2005 5:03:46 PM

And Kerry won Pennsylvania by 2 points. And Kerry won Michigan by 2 points. And Kerry won Wisconsin by half a point.

I love this talk where the American voter is a sober, rational animal that carefully studies policy and determines which person believes in more of the same things they do.

In this case in the context of people who get worked up over culture war issues.

This is just a big, masturbatory game. More so every day in this country. Your mythical swing voter (and I really do believe they are mythical, people just say this because it makes them feel smart and important) is becoming a rarer and rarer creature.

You can't tweak this, either the people are with us or they aren't. That's it.

Posted by: Ed Marshall | Feb 24, 2005 5:08:40 PM

Mr. Yglesias,

May I recommend once again that you have a look into the issues of military recruitment and ROTC within liberal strongholds. One reason ordinary people wonder about liberals is that so many prominent liberal institutions are loudly hostile to the military.

And, I again humbly suggest, this is one area where you personally could do some good, with respect to the American Prospect and Harvard University, you have some standing to begin making a difference.

Posted by: luisalegria | Feb 24, 2005 5:13:47 PM

On The E Word:

"Yeah! That's the ticket! That would be electoral magic, wouldn't it?"

Assuming you're being cheerfully sarcastic, to answer your question, YES. I think that would be electoral magic on national security. That's why Pat Buchanan on Meet The Press a few weeks ago sounded so sensible. The Dems need to differentiate themselves from the Republicans. What Kerry was trying ("I'll do what they're doing better") didn't work. A clear, firm anti-imperialism explanation will do wonders. Have some faith in your compatriots.

Posted by: Phil | Feb 24, 2005 5:19:42 PM

It also came out after the election that Bill Clinton had advised John Kerry to not only come out against gay marriage, but to also say he was against civil unions, as well.

The part about civil unions is pretty obviously nonsense. Civil unions poll very well, something like 2-1 in favor, I think. Even Bush half-assedly claimed to be in favor of civil unions during the election--something he obviously didn't want to do, for fear of suppressing wingnut enthusiasm on the issue--which was an obvious result of how the issue polls. And I think the Billster knows a thing or two about how to read polling data.

Posted by: Haggai | Feb 24, 2005 5:23:11 PM

Your mythical swing voter (and I really do believe they are mythical, people just say this because it makes them feel smart and important) is becoming a rarer and rarer creature.

You can't tweak this, either the people are with us or they aren't. That's it.

The thing I never understood about swing voter analysis is that demographics change. I mean, people die, people turn 18, people become naturalized. So instead of hunting the swing voters from the last election, is it possible to hunt the new voters for the next election?

Posted by: Saheli | Feb 24, 2005 5:24:26 PM

What was the Constitution Party candidate's total in the Specter-Hoeffel race? There are a huge number of single issue pro-life voters in Northern Alabama, a.k.a. Central Pennsylvania. Now, you're not going to get all of those folks to vote against Santorum, but etching into that margin even a little bit is important.

Running Jim Langevin in Rhode Island, however, is another matter. Chafee should be replaced by someone who's ideologically equivalent to Barbara Boxer

Posted by: niq | Feb 24, 2005 5:30:40 PM

Phil, you at least have to recognize that if a Democrat wanted to do the things you suggest they should, they couldn't even utter the words "imperialism" or "empire" in a negative context without fufilling every right-wing cliche about anti-American pointyheaded intellectuals. I would think the way to market anti-imperialism is as "leaner military more focused on keeping the homefront safe ." Also, insofar as anti-imperialism is anti-intervening in Darfur-like situations it's not good policy. And insofar as it means not attempting even sincere democracy promotion, it strikes me as bad policy.

Posted by: washerdreyer | Feb 24, 2005 5:30:49 PM

Ms. (or Mr.?) Saheli,

You must first try to predict who your future swing voters are. Past elections and their related polls give you demographic information, through exit polls for instance, such that you can create a profile of a swing voter, and tease out some of their concerns.

Looking forward it is much more difficult to properly identify who it is who could swing, if you avoid historical information.

Posted by: luisalegria | Feb 24, 2005 5:31:13 PM

"There's a reason why Rudy Guiliani and Arnold exist but any Republicans who ok a tax hike or a welfare program get SLAMMED immediately by grover norquist et al."

Damn straight. This is one area where we ought to be taking lessons from the Republicans.

If Bob Casey is going to vote the right way on Social Security and taxes and the budget, he's useful window dressing to have on the party to show pro-life voters that they can have a home in the Democratic Party.

Posted by: Petey | Feb 24, 2005 5:43:03 PM

Matt (not MY):

Then again, maybe I'm in the minority?

Check the results of the last election: You are in the minority. And from your intransigent attitude I would guess, content to stay there.

Posted by: epistemology | Feb 24, 2005 5:49:44 PM

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