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Bolton Time
While I've been a bit cynical and sarcastic about it, readers will know that I've been annoyingly praising of the Bush administration's decision to essentially flip-flop and start running a good foreign policy in the second term. The appointment of John Bolton as UN Ambassador, however, indicates that the malfactors of the first term are far from out of the battle yet. Preventing this disaster would be a major accomplishment for the country and, in its small way, for the blogosphere. Steve Clemons' The Washington Note is, of course, ground zero for this topic where you can find out who you should be calling about this (see the end of the post). Steve also makes the excellent point that by all accounts this is a move that's been forced on Condoleezza Rice, and not part of some brilliant Rice-ian policy to implement a Nixon-in-China UN reform agenda. Don't miss the Stop Bolton.org site, either.
Beyond that, a substantive point. One thing people like to point to in the Bolton record as a demonstration of his merits is the Proliferation Security Initiative. PSI certainly is a relative bright spot in the administration's god-awful anti-proliferation record in that it (a) exists, and (b) is, unlike most of the things Bush has bothered to do on this front, not actually counterproductive. That said, as bright spots go, it's pretty questionable:
The initiative does not empower countries to do anything that they previously could not do. Most importantly, PSI does not grant governments any new legal authority to conduct interdictions in international waters or airspace. Such interdictions may take place, but they must be confined to what is currently permissible under international law. . . . PSI is an informal arrangement among countries. To date, there is no list of criteria by which interdictions are to be made (except that the cargo is destined for a recipient that might use it to harm the United States or other countries). There is also no secretariat or formal organization that serves as a coordinating body.In part, people say the gappy and inadequate quality of the PSI is a result of poor administration follow-through in an administration's that's demonstrated poor follow-through on virtually all of its major policy initiatives (see especially, No Child Left Behind, the Faith-Based and Community Initiative, the occupation of Iraq). Beyond that, though, it represents the result of John Bolton's belief that international law and multinational institutions as such are objectionable, should be weakened, and certainly should not be created. It's important to understand that this is a wildly different view from simple extreme skepticism about the efficacy of any particular international institution. It's an objection to the idea of effective international institutions. Given the opportunity to create one from scratch -- the PSI -- Bolton didn't design one that, by his lights, was really good and useful. Instead, he didn't create one at all because he just thinks it's wrong to seek a rule-based global order. Somebody with that attitude is the worst possible candidate to reform the UN or represent American interests there.
March 14, 2005 | Permalink
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Comments
Let me get this straight. You are a strong critic of John Bolton, whose major crime is apparently that he shows contempt for "initiatives" without substance and for the whole process of "engagement" in the absence of results. And, to criticise him, you complain that a high-profile initiative has insufficient substance! Credit for being contrarian is, I suppose, due.
Posted by: sammler | Mar 14, 2005 11:10:18 AM
"John Bolton, whose major crime is apparently that he shows contempt for "initiatives" without substance"
Let me set aside for one moment any debate about the substance of the policies involved, and ask you why you think being good at showing contempt is a qualification for a senior diplomatic post.
Posted by: rea | Mar 14, 2005 11:16:40 AM
Bolton's no surprise appointment. Bush and Repugs revel in tweaking everyone with "Fuck you" nominations. Scott Bloch throws out whistleblower cases en masse and then harasses the people the blow the whistle when he does it. Alberto Gonzalez, the overseer of the legal system, advocates the legality of tortue, a practice contray to every international treaty, agreement, pact or understanding known. Kerik goes down in flames for Homeland Security and now we see he's skimming monies meant for 9/11 families and getting laid in residences meant for rest for weary 9/11 workers. Transportation Sec Mineta gleefully agrees with gutting Amtrak in an era when dependence on foreign oil is causing much trouble. Goss chases away or fires for purely partisan reasons dozens with experience in intel we badly need. The list is long and deplorable. Was Bolton like a bad bolt of lightning for the U.N. job? Nah, his appointment was as inevitable as the tides.
Posted by: steve duncan | Mar 14, 2005 11:56:41 AM
It's important to understand that this is a wildly different view from simple extreme skepticism about the efficacy of any particular international institution. It's an objection to the idea of effective international institutions.
Then again, Bolton wasn't picked to be US ambassador to the world's international institutions. He was picked to head the US delegation to the UN, which is most certainly not an effective international institution.
Now, I know you disagree with that assertion, Matt--so here's a little test of your capacity for growth, so to speak. In the immediate aftermath of the Iraq war, you were a huge booster of the idea of turning that country over to those legendary management wizards at the UN. In retrospect, do you think that that might have been just a tiny bit overenthusiastic on your part?
Posted by: Dan Simon | Mar 14, 2005 11:57:33 AM
"In retrospect, do you think that that might have been just a tiny bit overenthusiastic on your part?"
In retrospect, Mr. Simon, considering the incrdible clusterfuck that the adminstration made of Iraq, don't you think its a tad overenthusiastic on your part to assume that the UN would have done a worse job?
Posted by: rea | Mar 14, 2005 12:07:49 PM
Mr. Simon, since it is the U.S. and not the U.N. that has reserved sole rights for management of Iraq could you speculate and contrast our actual performance with what you personally would expect from the U.N.? Start with whether the U.N would have lost billions in reconstruction funds. Would they have been appropriated billions more to help the populace and two years later still have nearly all of it unspent? Would the U.N have set up an Accounting Office staffed soley with young, inexperienced political appointees nearly bereft of accounting background or reconstruction work experience? Would they have failed to provide their occupation troops with even the most basic of personal protection armor? Would they have failed to sieze and protect weapons depots and nuclear weapons/storage sites? In short would they have bungled matters any worse than the U.S. has?
Posted by: steve duncan | Mar 14, 2005 12:16:43 PM
In retrospect, Mr. Simon, considering the incrdible clusterfuck that the adminstration made of Iraq, don't you think its a tad overenthusiastic on your part to assume that the UN would have done a worse job?
Actually, the administration did better than I ever imagined they would--particularly at building democracy, something I was skeptical that they could ever do. My chief complaint was that they were painfully slow in reconstituting an effective security infrastructure, but (a) they seem to have begun addressing that problem, and (b) the idea that the UN could have done anywhere near a decent job of that--given that they've never done it before, have never considered it part of their mandate, and can't even competently perform tasks that they do consider their mandate--is simply laughable.
Posted by: Dan Simon | Mar 14, 2005 12:26:21 PM
I think the Bolton appointment suggests that Bush administration foreign policy is still not a coherent whole, but consists of discrete, disconnected steps aimed at appeasing whatever Bush constituency most needs to be fondled at the time of the appointment. Apparently the neocon/hawks are in a bitchy mood this month and need to be stroked.
This one is right up there with the Pipes and Gonzalez appointments. Sending Bolton the UN doesn't even rise to the level of a phony attempt at diplomacy or bridge-building. It's like the Democrats naming Noam Chomsky to head the Fed - a blunt FU to whatever is left of the international community.
Posted by: Dan Kervick | Mar 14, 2005 12:26:25 PM
Mr. Simon, we ostensibily invaded to find WMD's. There were none. Then it was to rid Iraq of Saddam's terror and thereby improve their lives. Fine, they're possibly freer politically and culturally. They also have less available electricity, less potable drinking water, significantly degraded infrastructure including most importantly sewage and garbage collection systems. They wait in line longer for gasoline, have higher rates of unemployment, higher rates of several diseases and hygiene related afflictions and are less secure in their life and property on a daily basis. Their ability to travel from point A to point B is in some places dangerous to non-existant. Does the removal of Saddam mean that all these realities are acceptable? In the face of these factors are the lives of the average Iraqi significantly better merely by virtue of Saddam's absence?
Posted by: steve duncan | Mar 14, 2005 12:38:01 PM
Any appointment that can bringforth some sort of change to the ineffectual existence of the UN is long overdue. With any such luck, Bolton will not only succeed in bringing about change in policies over there, but hopefully manage to move the location to another country!
Posted by: Mike | Mar 14, 2005 12:40:05 PM
brilliant Rice-ian policy
Is such a thing even possible?!?
Posted by: bubba | Mar 14, 2005 12:43:47 PM
With any such luck, Bolton will not only succeed in bringing about change in policies over there, but hopefully manage to move the location to another country!
A change in policies I'm doubtfull about but a change in location? yes I can see being increasingly likely, and not just because of the appointment of Bolton. Now as to whether a change in location might lead to a change in policies that's a good question.
Posted by: postit | Mar 14, 2005 12:48:31 PM
"the administration did better than I ever imagined they would--particularly at building democracy"
You're delusional, Mr. Simon. Sistani forced the elections--the adminstration wanted to hand the country over to a hand-picked dictatorship. And the people who won the election are, in the long run, pro-theocracy and anti-constitutional democracy.
Given your satisfaction with the way things are going in Iraq right now, I assume you are wearing a burkha at your computer terminal?
Posted by: rea | Mar 14, 2005 12:51:16 PM
Well, I think the common theme in all these nominations is personal loyalty to the 'Family'. Thus Mr. Bolton as such is irrelevant, he is merely a lackey; if he is told to lick Annan's ass tomorrow - he will and with pleasure.
Posted by: abb1 | Mar 14, 2005 1:15:13 PM
If you guys want to control who gets appointed to be the representative of the President's polices at home and abroad
WIN AN ELECTION!
Every time a conservative is nominated to a postition in a conservative administration you guys throw a hissy fit.
The President was just re-elected by a majority of the voters. That means, on balance, the American People prefer his policies and his views of who is a deserving nominee more than they do yours. Jon Bolton is a conservative appointed by a conservative president. Unless there is a substantive case to be made as to why he is unqualified to fill this position (And no, disagreeing with him doesn't make him unqualified) you guys should stop crying so much.
Honestly, you sound like a bunch of hysterical old women. (And I don't mean any offense to hysterical old women by comparing them to you guys)
Posted by: MJ | Mar 14, 2005 1:35:10 PM
True, except that Bolton is not a conservative. He's a neocon, and that's more like a member of a messianic cult (no offense to the messianic cultists). Other than that - all true, the Americans are getting what they deserve.
Posted by: abb1 | Mar 14, 2005 1:58:51 PM
"Unless there is a substantive case to be made as to why he is unqualified to fill this position (And no, disagreeing with him doesn't make him unqualified) you guys should stop crying so much."
Typical of your side, you don't even listen to your opposition's arguments. See my comment from 11:16 am above, in which I point out that the guy's being nominated for a diplomatic post and he's notoriously undiplomatic. Or see Dan Kervick at 12:26.
Hell, I wouldn't aprove of making Michael Moore an ambassador, either, no matter how much I agree with him on some issues.
Posted by: rea | Mar 14, 2005 2:27:54 PM
MJ, it's much too easy to label you an idiot but I will anyway. So, election by a majority means the majority backs any action or appointment? Bush could announce a policy of shooting on sight all who cross our borders illegally and we'd all be bound to sit and agree with it and watch the slaughter? All by virtue of his election? Hmmm, yes idiocy does abound, and MJ possesses his share.
Posted by: steve duncan | Mar 14, 2005 2:34:23 PM
The Bolton appointment comes at the same time as a diplomatic effort by Rice to forge a common policy with the Europeans on Iran. At some point, the Bush administration is going to ask the Europeans to cooperate with the US in referring the Iran case to the UN.
Yet now they name a guy as their UN ambassador who is on record as an ideological opponent of the very idea of international law, and clearly finds the UN contemptible!
What are European governments, and their publics, to think about this appointment? Likely this: "The Americans simply aren't serious, and are up to the same old bullshit. If the Iran case goes to the UN, the Americans are likely planning to do the same thing they did with Iraq: yank our chains for a few weeks as they go through the motions of multilateral coordination, and then mount a unilateral military solution. The present US government is simply an unreliable international partner, and a rogue actor. They must be thwarted, rather than supported."
It's hard to imagine what the Bush administration could be up to: either this is a deliberate and rational decision, in which case it reflects a weak, transparent attempt to further undermine European diplomacy and world bodies, or it is a thoughtlessly irrational decision, reflecting an incoherently managed foreign policy. In either case, it reflects incompetence - even stupidity.
As for the power of opponents of Bolton to thwart this nomination, don't underestimate us! This appointment is so bad that the public can be sold on its badness if it is spelled out for them clearly and simply. There is still enough support among the UN public for some degree of US cooperation with the UN for them to be convinced that naming an anti-UN radical to this position is beyond the pale. I plan to write my congressmen, and others, on this matter to let them know exactly how much of a mistake this is.
Posted by: Dan Kervick | Mar 14, 2005 3:45:11 PM
Italics off
Posted by: Dan Kervick | Mar 14, 2005 3:46:25 PM
There
Posted by: Dan Kervick | Mar 14, 2005 3:48:27 PM
Actually, it seems to me to be flagrantly obvious that the UN would have done a far, far worse job in Iraq than the US occupation managed to do. That's not to say, of course, that the US occupation can't be sharply criticized in many ways--in fact, I've done so myself. It's just that, in hindsight, the results are positively miles ahead of anything one could ever realistically imagine the UN accomplishing.
I suppose I should have expected some dissent on this score from rabid UN fans. I don't think I could possibly have anticipated this level of utter detachment from reality, though.
Start with whether the U.N would have lost billions in reconstruction funds. Would they have been appropriated billions more to help the populace and two years later still have nearly all of it unspent?
Would the UN ever mishandle billions of dollars meant to help Iraqis? Perish the thought!
Would they have failed to provide their occupation troops with even the most basic of personal protection armor?
Would the UN ever fail to protect its soldiers adequately? Perish the thought!
Would they have failed to sieze and protect weapons depots and nuclear weapons/storage sites?
Would the UN ever fail to detect nuclear weapons development sites? Perish the thought!
In the face of these factors are the lives of the average Iraqi significantly better merely by virtue of Saddam's absence?
Would UN soldiers ever fail to improve the lives of the locals? Perish the thought!
Sistani forced the elections--the adminstration wanted to hand the country over to a hand-picked dictatorship. And the people who won the election are, in the long run, pro-theocracy and anti-constitutional democracy.
Would the UN ever accommodate undemocratic theocrats? Perish the thought!
Posted by: Dan Simon | Mar 14, 2005 5:35:26 PM
"It's hard to imagine what the Bush administration could be up to"
I do think there is a purpose and a plan, probably quite specific, which may even include the appointment of Karen Hughes to Undersecretary of State. Karen Hughes is not a nobody granted a sinecure. Something is in the works.
Posted by: bob mcmanus | Mar 14, 2005 9:01:54 PM
Dan, you resoundingly enumerate and link to the myriad ways the U.N. fails to do their job on various missions. Each shortcoming you respond to however is analogous to a specific failure of U.S. policy and forces in Iraq. Yet you pronounce our mission wildly more successful than we had any reasonable expectations of achieving. Many measures of the quality of life and security in Iraq under U.S. occupation are worse post-invasion. You assert that since they would be even more degraded and dangerous in the hands of the U.N. let's label our overall performance a success. Give wingnuts a job to do and they're sure to succeed. All they have to do is set the bar measuring performance so low a car full of circus clowns would be told "Job well done!"
Posted by: steve duncan | Mar 15, 2005 10:57:35 AM
Each shortcoming you respond to however is analogous to a specific failure of U.S. policy and forces in Iraq. Yet you pronounce our mission wildly more successful than we had any reasonable expectations of achieving.
Indeed. In fact, from the beginning, I doubted that anything even coming close to a democracy could be established in Iraq within a time frame not measured in decades. In the best case--reasonably plausible, I thought--I imagined a relatively benign, mildly pro-Western autocrat rising to power under American tutelage. In the worst case--and by far the most likely case, had the US been foolish enough to turn Iraq over to the UN, as Matthew recommended--I expected either a takeover by a totalitarian Saddam-style strongman, an Iranian-puppet theocracy, or a complete breakdown into civil war.
By these standards, the current circumstances in Iraq are remarkably good. And--to repeat--there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that had the US turned Iraq over to the UN following the defeat of Saddam Hussein, conditions in Iraq would be immeasurably worse today. Given everything we've seen in the last two-and-a-half years--the Ba'athist underground, Zarqawi's Al Qaeda branch operation, Sadr's thugs, massive sectarian strife, Syrian and Iranian troublemaking--it's clear that the UN would have been absolutely helpless to stave off complete and utter disaster in Iraq.
Of course, there's still plenty of room for legitimate criticism of the US occupation--as I mentioned, I've offered a fair share of it myself. But the issue here is not whether the US occupation of Iraq was perfect, but rather whether John Bolton's skepticism of the UN is more credible than Matthew Yglesias' UN-philia. In my view, the outcome in Iraq is ample reason to credit Bolton over Yglesias on this issue.
Posted by: Dan Simon | Mar 15, 2005 5:03:07 PM
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