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Nuclear Winter
The politics of a nuclear exchange over judicial nominations are a bit uncertain. Either side might win, depending on how well they handle things, though I think the Democrats probably have an edge thanks to the Schiavo case and some other recent examples of GOP hysteria. On the substance, though, I think it's no contest -- a nuclear exchange would be a fiasco for Republicans.
First off, it's important to see how little is at stake here. It's not as if Democrats have been filibustering all of Bush's nominees -- they've confirmed over 200 and blocked about ten. Nor is it as if the other 200 judges were nice, squishy liberals and the Democrats are filibustering the only real rightwingers in the bunch. So going nuclear takes us from a position where Bush has packed the district and circuit courts with rightwingers, to one in which the district and circuit courts are slightly more packed with rightwingers. Meanwhile, the GOP loses its ability to pass all other legislation. I think it's safe to say that if you stack up the entire Republican legislative agenda in one pile, and the fate of this handful of judges in the other, it's clear that the judges are the less important stack. The business lobby seems to agree, not because they don't care about the judiciary, but because they understand that this fight over the filibustered judges is symbolic and doesn't have much to do with the substance of the future of the courts. This is part of what makes me very skeptical that Frist can assemble the 50 votes (plus Dick Cheney) he needs to pass it. It should be self-evident to any Senator who's neither insane nor running for president that this is a bad deal for conservatives.
April 24, 2005 | Permalink
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Meanwhile, the Kossacks are marching to get GOP senators to vote against eliminating the filibuster. I really don't know what the right answer is here, but there seems a high probability that Democratic activists are acting contrary to their own inte... [Read More]
Tracked on Apr 24, 2005 12:34:23 PM
Comments
Stupid people beget stupid people.
Posted by: Ferd | Apr 24, 2005 10:12:35 AM
Yes, but we should still protest the nuclear option. Watch the Frist '08 campaign tank.
Posted by: google | Apr 24, 2005 10:19:05 AM
"It should be self-evident to any Senator who's neither insane nor running for president that this is a bad deal for conservatives."
Wow, it will be close...
Posted by: Scott Lemieux | Apr 24, 2005 11:22:34 AM
One thing worth noting is that, although businesses like courts that don't mind corporate depradations, they also require a stable legal environment. If the Bible-thumpers get the "judges" they want, stability will take a back seat to "What Would Jesus Do?"
Posted by: bobo brooks | Apr 24, 2005 11:32:27 AM
If the Bible-thumpers get the "judges" they want, stability will take a back seat to "What Would Jesus Do?"
It'll be very stable. Like in Basra.
BASRA, Iraq -- Sheikh Assad al-Basri says there's no need to worry that he and his Islamist militiamen might recreate a repressive Iranian-style theocracy in Iraq.
That's because the Islamic Republic of Iran is far too liberal, according to Basri, the leading local representative of rebel cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
"Only 5 percent of Iranians abide by real Islamic laws," said Basri, who boasts that he and his cohorts already have blown up most of Basra's liquor stores, punished "decadent picnickers" and imposed Islamic dress codes on women. "The rest of Iranians are corrupt. Look, there are drugs and girls who don't wear hijab [covering] well in Iran."
Posted by: abb1 | Apr 24, 2005 11:48:42 AM
Nicely done. An extended bit on this whole possible conflagration brought to us by confused minds can be found at Armageddon on the Potomac
Posted by: The Heretik | Apr 24, 2005 11:59:19 AM
If there's one dollar at stake amoral businesses will abandon any cause in a heartbeat.
Posted by: poputonian | Apr 24, 2005 11:59:26 AM
The issue isnlt so much the ten or so judges as such. It's keeping the Relogious Right happy. Twenty-fiec years have passed since the GOP made its alliance with the social "conservatives" (they aren't conservative but that's another matter), but in that time it has not delivered on one single item of importance. Five years ago, in the wake of the impeachment failure, the Religious Right was ready fold up its tents. If it can't get some major progress on abortion and the rolling back of gay rights it may still do so. That will only happen if the judiciary is remade not with real conservatives but with radical theocons.
Posted by: Jonf | Apr 24, 2005 12:31:51 PM
Coming to your television April 24th. They fought to bring you Jim Crow and "separate but equal." Now, they're fighting the filibuster for Jesus.
It's "Justice Sunday".
A Solid South/Family Research Council production.
Posted by: Jon | Apr 24, 2005 12:35:45 PM
Going nuclear might be a fiasco for the Republicans, but it seems possible to me that if the Democrats bring the Senate to a total halt in reaction then Republicans might be able to paint the Democrats as being irresponsible/uncooperative, win the war for public opinion, and win even more seats in 2006.
I'm not saying I want that to happen.
I'm not saying that's likely.
I do think that's possible, though.
Posted by: Foo Bar | Apr 24, 2005 1:55:34 PM
OK, rereading his original post, I realize Matt already acknowledged that the politics of how it would play out are uncertain, so my previous comment is kind of pointless. I guess all I was saying is that whoever wins the politics gets to win on substance later on, but that's an obvious point. Sorry for wasting bandwidth ;).
Posted by: Foo Bar | Apr 24, 2005 2:25:48 PM
Foo bar --
Dems aren't talking about bringing Senate business to a total halt. They've made it clear that they don't plan to block spending bills, national security, etc. Just the (discretionary) schemes that Republicans are so hot for. (Like total repeal of the "death tax.")
The precedent often cited for a Democratic disaster here is when the Gingrich Republicans brought Congress to a total stop -- meaning everyone (non-essential) had to go home, national parks (including the Washington Monument) closed, even Social Security checks stopped. This isn't what Harry Reid is threatening.
Posted by: martind | Apr 24, 2005 2:47:23 PM
Changing the rules is good for Republicans, and I explain why at my blog.
Posted by: Half Sigma | Apr 24, 2005 3:15:44 PM
I think Matt misses something here. This isn't about 10 Appeals court judges at all (not to the prez and not to the wingnuts). This is about the 1 to 4 Supreme Court slots that will open up in the next 3 1/2 years. This is why they are willing to risk their other agendas in the pursuit of a confirmation rating higher than 95%.
They want to torpedo the fillibuster before a supreme court seat opens up and the stakes get much higher, the coverage more unpredictable and the moderates in their party (what's left of them) get more wobbly.
This is why we have to scorch every inch, to make this as costly as possible to the repugs because if we lose the filibuster now, they can pass any wacko(s) they want onto the Supreme Court and lock the court up in a Scalia/Thomas philosophy for 20 years.
Posted by: UofAZGrad | Apr 24, 2005 3:49:57 PM
I really hope they go ahead and shut down the Senate - no chance for a vote on SS privatization, permanent tax cuts for the wealthy, etc. I only wish it happened earlier so that the bankruptcy bill didn't pass.
Posted by: ESaund | Apr 24, 2005 4:01:47 PM
UofAZ grad is exactly right, the Supreme Court appointments are the real ball game. Clearly the religious right thinks that it would be worth it to trash the rest of the GOP agenda for a shot at filling O'Connor and Stevens' seats with pro-lifers. The real question is how many justices would they need to replace to make it worthwhile for the business lobby? Sacrificing the energy bill, the permanent estate tax repeal and the rest might be worth it (to the corporate lobby) if they can get the Court to come around to the view that many Federal government programs and regulations are unconstitutional.
But no one knows ahead of time how many (and which) justices will retire in the next 4 years, (although Rehnquist seems likely to leave soon.)
Posted by: mike | Apr 24, 2005 5:08:06 PM
"they've confirmed over 200 and blocked about ten."
A misleading metric; The first tier of the judiciary, because they are bound so heavily by precident, and so subject to being over-ruled by higher judges, are not yet politicised. It's only when you get to the circuit court level that nominations have real political saliency, and at THAT level, the filibuster rate is much higher than a mere 5 percent.
Posted by: Brett Bellmore | Apr 24, 2005 7:14:32 PM
Brett is right, of course. District Court judges are simply not important enough to filibuster. Hell, Democrats might as well add in administrative law judges and magistrate court judges to pad the statistics too.
But I really wanted to comment about this:
Meanwhile, the GOP loses its ability to pass all other legislation.
Do you really think that Democrats are going to be able to pull this off? Doubtful. I think the "shut down the Senate" threat is largely a bluff. The Republicans would have already changed one Senate rule in response to Democrat obstruction, what makes you think that they wouldn't change other rules in the face of more Democrat obstruction?
Posted by: Al | Apr 24, 2005 7:28:28 PM
Here's a good post on that:
http://www.professorbainbridge.com/2005/04/obstructionism.html
In reality, the filibuster rate is pushing fifty percent, for circuit court nominations. Hugely higher than any previous administration.
Posted by: Brett Bellmore | Apr 24, 2005 8:12:46 PM
I think the endgame for this thing is the Democrats in the Senate trying to bait Frist to into changing more rules. If he does, he looks like a tyrant. If he can't, he looks weak and will be blamed for the consequences of cracking open the hornets nest to begin with.
Posted by: SamAm | Apr 24, 2005 11:40:11 PM
The most bizarre thing about this is that if the Republicans wanted to change the rules and minimize political fallout, they would have simply done it as soon as they'd decided it was possible to do, rather than talking about it for half a year.
Right?
So I suspect the intention at first was to simply blow a lot of smoke over this and try to keep painting Democrats as obstructionists.
Of course, it could be that Bush has simply gone pig-headed after the election. Or, who knows, maybe a right wing cabal has decided 2006 is a good year for Democrats to regain control of the Senate, for whatever reason.
Posted by: ChasHeath | Apr 25, 2005 1:15:49 PM
Because there are a number of Republican Senators who can be counted upon to defect in such a vote, and a couple others who are squishy, they couldn't do this until after the new Senate was seated, (Increasing their margin.) AND until your side had displayed enough intransigence to demonstrate to the squishy faction that it was actually necessary.
Fortunately for the Republican leadership, the Democrats have delivered on that display.
Posted by: Brett Bellmore | Apr 25, 2005 3:25:55 PM
Al,
The shutting down of the Senate isn't a bluff. Not only will they do that, but they are going to go about it in a very clever way. First off, Reid will bypass the usual comity that allows the majority to set the agenda for floor votes (done through what is passed out of committee).
Reid will bring at least 10 major pieces of legislation to the floor and force the republicans to vote against very popular policies like increasing money for veterans benefits, women's healchare, jobs, ect. Reid and company will then gradually escalate the procedural roadblocks to the republican legislation so they can kill the frog by slow boil instead of all at once.
This won't be like 1995, when the government shut down immediately and visibly. National parks will remain open, social security checks will keep coming and the dems will make exceptions for national security spending so it will be much harder to cast Reid as Newt Gingrich. Polls show the public is comfortable with active minority opposition to the republican agenda so at worst Reid's moves will fall under the public radar's and at best it will be spun as a principled opposition to extreme legislation and nominees.
Posted by: UofAZGrad | Apr 26, 2005 9:14:59 PM
Al,
I forgot to address your other point, that the republicans will just change the rule on all filibusters. That is definitely an option, but it is one that will have a much harder time passing than the one on judicial nominees. The argument against judicial filibuster rests on the notion that the Constitution's "advise and consent" power does not allow for a fillibuster.
This argument is not available for the fillibuster in all its forms. The fillibuster has been part of the Senate for over 150 years. Its enshrined in the institution's rules and rule changes are supposed to take a 2/3 vote to enact. The republicans can only get around that by changing the rule with a point of order (a ruling by the president of the Senate backed up with simple majority of senators).
Consequently, Republican Senators who are comfortable using the backdoor point of order for judicial filibuster may not be so inclined on all filibusters. And even if they are, they may take pause in the fact that someday they will be in the minority again and will have to live by the rule changes they make today. Now Frist is confortable with this because he is out of the Senate in 2007 and on to his presidential campaign and the White House is comfortable because they have 4 lame duck years to get thir stuff through. But are 50 Republican Senators comfortable with this? That is why Frist hasn't been able to call for a vote yet, they know if they pull the trigger on the judicial nominees they will have to pull the trigger on the rest or go back to their constituents and explain why no legislation can get through.
The filibustering of judicial nominees is not unprecedented (fairly rare but there are several instances). Getting around the 2/3 requirement to change a Senate rule, however, is unprecedented and was never seriously contemplated by the dems when they were in power no matter how frustated they were with Senate Republicans stalling their legislation and nominees (even a candidate for Chief Justice of the Supreme Court who was successfully filibustered).
Posted by: UofAZGrad | Apr 26, 2005 9:32:01 PM
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