Orthodoxy

Ross Douthat makes a empirical case for doctrinal orthodoxy in Catholicism, offering the familiar argument that pace liberal Catholics, liberalizing the church would make it weaker, not stronger, in terms of mass attendance, vocations, etc. which you can allegedly see from the fact that conservative Protestatism is doing better than liberal Protestantism. I don't think the argument really works. An awful lot of reforms proposed by liberal Catholics -- married priests, decentralization, bigger role for the laity, birth control for married couples -- are things that Evangelical Protestantism already permits. The decline of mainline Protestantism does, I think, rebut the view that being nicer to gay people or taking a softer line on abortion or premarital sex would likely be counterproductive, but it doesn't rebut the view that a more liberal view on these other issues would strengthen the Church.

When considering the impact of restrictive views on a religion's health, I think it's important to make distinctions. Gay-bashing is a really, really smart way for a religion to position itself. For the overwhelming majority of people, not being gay is really easy. I do it every day of the week without any help from fear of Hell. But as a secular person, I don't get to feel self-righteous about my heterosexuality. A religion that told me it was really, really awesome of me to be straight has an obvious appeal. Yes, you alienate gays and lesbians, but those are pretty small minorities of the population. Telling married couples they can't use birth control, by contrast, is asking people to undergo some pretty major inconveniences -- tends to drive people away. Pre-marital sex is an interesting middle ground. Swearing off sex before marriage turns out to be very popular among young kids. It's also something that married people -- especially parents -- like a great deal. Older teens and twentysomething single people don't like it so much. As all the studies show, lots of people sign virginity pledges, but few keep to them. Fortunately, young singles are unlikely to attend church anyway compared to other demographic groups because we tend to be rootless and mobile. For a church's core audience of parents and children, "no premarital sex" is, like "no gay sex," a good way to make people feel good about themselves for refraining from conduct they wouldn't be engaging in anyway.

That's the doctrinal sweet spot. If the rabbis changed the kosher rules to permit cheeseburgers, bacon, and lobster but forbid vegemite, millet, and goat I bet you'd find that all of a sudden most American Jews were keeping kosher and pretty damn psyched about it.