Strategic Clarity

Robert Farley's post on Taiwan and a conversation last night with Justin Logan reminded me that I've been meaning to say something on this subject. I feel that the traditional policy of "ambiguity" on this subject is largely obsolete and has shaded into a dangerous kind of drift that could easily result in a worst-case scenario outcome involving a costly war and massive devastation to Taiwan. Better would be a policy of clarity. We have every reason to come to Taiwan's assistance on the off-chance that China decides to attack the ROC in an unprovoked manner, and ever reason to say so clearly which would make it exceedingly unlikely that any such thing would occur. At the same time, it would be well worth our while to clarify to the Taiwanese electorate that this is not an open-ended security guarantee come what may. Our position should be that while re-integration with the mainland is something we would only countenance in a manner acceptable to the Taiwanese electorate that eventual reintegration is the long-term goal and if the Taiwanese want to follow a policy of seeking independence they'll be on there own. The United States has no particular stake in the metaphysical status of Taiwanese sovereignty and a large interest in maintaining generally good relations with Taiwan.

Similarly, we need to address the problem of Taiwanese defense spending that Justin highlighted along with Ted Galen Carpenter in March. Taiwan as a small, wealthy country facing a large, poor, potentially hostile neighbor is the sort of country that ought to be devoting a very large proportion of GDP to defense. Instead, it's smallish and declining. If this is what the Taiwanese want to do, then that's their business. But the United States has no good reason to be offering guarantees of any sort to a country that wants to behave in that manner and we should, again, say so clearly. If the U.S. and Taiwan have our acts together, there's every reason to think peace can be maintained across the Straights until such time as China either experiences political reform or (to my uneducated guess more likely) one of those periods of total-and-catastrophic collapse that tend to recur now and again in Chinese history. If not -- a Taiwan that continues to follow a policy of provocative gestures toward formal independence while neglecting its defense operating under a cloud of ambiguous statements and substantive neglect from Washington -- something very, very, very bad could happen.