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Spurs Win!

Following up on yesterday's theme, the Spurs are universally predicted to win the Western Conference by ESPN's NBA writers. Now it's true that their offseason acquisitions probably won't really help them very much. That, however, is basically because they were already a ridiculously good team. Now they're both ridiculously good, and essentially injury-proof due to phenomenal depth. What's more, having Van Excel around to back up Tony Parker should be a real asset since Parker is usually very good but sometimes goes into funks.

It's also worth noting this about Tim Duncan. In 2004-05 he average 20.3 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.6 blocks, and 0.7 steals per game. In every metric except blocks, that was his worst season ever. The odds of him playing somewhat better are pretty good. Meanwhile, there's good reason to believe Parker and Ginobili still have their best days ahead of them.

UPDATE: See also:

The Spurs received 77 percent of the vote among the approximately 25 GMs who responded. That percentage is the highest a team has received in the four years the survey has been conducted. The defending champions got 96 percent of the vote to win the Western Conference and 100 percent to win the Southwest Division.
Yup. Eastern Conference should offer some good races this year, however, and several top-notch teams. I'm surprised 78 percent said Tim Duncan was the best power forward. I can see the case for thinking he's better than Garnett, but surely it's not such an overwhelmingly clear choice. KG is really good. Certainly, if you switched him and Duncan, the Spurs would still be the best team in the league and the T-Wolves would still be mediocre at best. Can't blame him for that situation.

October 25, 2005 | Permalink


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"Now they're both ridiculously good, and essentially injury-proof due to phenomenal depth."

Timmy had a twisted ankle for much of March and April of last year. If that ankle hadn't healed, they would have gone nowhere.


And I'll add something I noted from the previous NBA thread:

The Spurs, barring injury, are indeed the overwhelming favorites to win the West. Denver and Dallas seem far short of what's necessary, and Houston seems a clear bit short.

But the strong conference this year is the East.

Detroit, Miami, and Indiana all are quite capable of beating San Antonio, and each of those teams looks stronger than Houston.

Being the clear favorite in the West is worth much less this year than it has been in a very long time. I'd bet on the NBA champ coming out of the East this year.

Posted by: Petey | Oct 25, 2005 5:27:03 PM

I wouldn't count on the Heat. Ric Bucher did a column a few months ago (behind an Insider wall now) about how teams that shake things up as much as they did never win it all the next year, and how Riles was just setting Van Gundy up, etc. It was maybe a little excessive, but I agreed with the gist of what he was saying.

But Indy is gonna be pretty scary. And then there's the dawn of the Flip era in Detroit, so it's interesting how all three of the top East contenders have made pretty important changes from last year (with Artest in, Reggie out for Indy, plus SarJas coming in should be a plus for them as well).

Posted by: Haggai | Oct 25, 2005 6:07:32 PM

Agree with Petey 100% that the Spurs are NOT "injury-proof". If Timmy goes down, they ain't winning squat.

I'm actually surprised though that the Mavs didn't get at least ONE bite. I know they lost Finley to the Spurs, but he is on the downside anyway. I would give them at least a 10% chance of taking the Western Conf crown. And, of course, if Amare really CAN come back in 4 months (a huge IF, obviously), then the Suns have a good shot in the playoffs. Also, I think that Sacto has a decent shot with SAR at the PF spot.

Posted by: Al | Oct 25, 2005 6:24:24 PM

"I'm actually surprised though that the Mavs didn't get at least ONE bite."

Once you get past the Spurs, I think Houston is clearly the cream of the crop in the West. They've made a couple of key acquisitions to go along with Yao and McGrady. I think they're the only team that could give healthy S.A. any kind of series.

Only after Houston do you get to Dallas and Denver.

"Also, I think that Sacto has a decent shot with SAR at the PF spot."

Sacto in the West is in the same position that your Nets are in in the East: they are serious contenders for the dubious title of Best Non-Elite Team in the Conference.

Posted by: Petey | Oct 25, 2005 6:43:52 PM

I guess I don't really see the Houston thing. After Yao and TMac, who do they have? Swift, Rafer Alston & Derek Anderson? These are all guys who couldn't even start on the last teams, so I don't see them as huge additions. Frankly, I think that Sacto's starting 5 is better than Houston's starting 5.

Posted by: Al | Oct 25, 2005 7:34:24 PM

"Frankly, I think that Sacto's starting 5 is better than Houston's starting 5."

But Houston's top two are both better than Sacto's best player. Yao/McGrady are the base of a championship squad if you put the right supporting cast around them. Sacto has nothing like that.

And part of the optimism about Houston this year is the Ginobilli Effect - good players can become great players when they get to operate in the shadows cast by superstars. Swift and Alston are both in good position to have breakout seasons.

Posted by: Petey | Oct 25, 2005 7:49:34 PM

Watching the Knicks/Sixers. The two surprises:

Nate Robinson for the Knicks can really play. I'd heard the good buzz about him, and if he can do things like this every night, he'll end up seeing some real minutes this year.

Chris Webber can run! Chris Webber can jump! Chris Webber can play down in the blocks! The guy looks a thousand percent better than he did last year. Who knows what he'll be like on the second night of a back to back in February, but it's still a very good sign. Expectations are mighty low for the Sixers, but they're one of those teams who could do some real damage if a bunch of things break their way.

Posted by: Petey | Oct 25, 2005 9:03:21 PM

Off-topic, but holy shit, Fox has at least one pretty cool person programming the segue music on their World Series broadcast...they just entered the 7th inning to the tune of "Complete Control" by The Clash!

Posted by: Haggai | Oct 25, 2005 10:44:06 PM

I think Petey and AL are big fags, who wrongly think that the east coat counts again in the nba, just because of recent accidents.

"KG is really good. Certainly, if you switched him and Duncan, the Spurs would still be the best team in the league and the T-Wolves would still be mediocre at best."

Also, this is wrong. You can't substitute either of those players and know what you'll get. In particular, Duncan (on the plus) is a smarter player than KG, and (on the not plus) his success is inseperable from Popovich's coaching. Duncan is a beautiful player, but Popovich is the best coach since Chuck Daly coached those bruiser Pistons teams. Duncan, even now, is the first player anyone who is not a retard takes in making his nba team.

Posted by: spacetoast | Oct 26, 2005 5:42:57 AM

KG's legacy will be the contract cap.

His monster contract crippled the Wolves for a long time and really scared Owners.

Posted by: Zach | Oct 26, 2005 11:14:43 AM

Expectations are mighty low for the Sixers, but they're one of those teams who could do some real damage if a bunch of things break their way.

If I were to refer to the Sixers in a sentence with the words "damage," and "break," it would be most likely in reference to the inevitable fate of Chris Webber's ankles. Enjoy your optimism, because he'll be hurt come February.

Not that I, a long-time Kings fan, am gloating, oh no...

Posted by: Kurt Montandon | Oct 26, 2005 5:11:05 PM

"Not that I, a long-time Kings fan, am gloating, oh no..."

Your GM is smarter than my GM. No doubt.

Posted by: Petey | Oct 26, 2005 9:36:32 PM

I can see the case for thinking he's better than Garnett, but surely it's not such an overwhelmingly clear choice. KG is really good.

Duncan's not just the best at his position. He's the best player in the league, period. (also, I like Garnett's game a lot, but what the heck's he won?)

Posted by: P.B. Almeida | Oct 26, 2005 11:16:09 PM

"I like Garnett's game a lot, but what the heck's he won?"

It's a team sport, y'know. Individual players don't win or lose anything.

And, of course, the lack of a championship was the big knock on Michael Jordan for his first seven years in the league.

It's the same reason the clueless will try to make a case for Bill Russell as the greatest player ever. Rings are the thing, but they're not a simple measure of an individual player's greatness.

Posted by: Petey | Oct 27, 2005 7:33:18 AM

True enough, Petey, but the talent around Duncan over the past 6 or 7 seasons hasn't always blown away the talent around Garnett. In some cases, like 2 years ago, I think the talent around Garnett was better than that around Duncan.

The difference between the two, I think, is that Duncan is a post player and Garnett really isn't. And post players are better suited for the playoffs than non-post players.

Posted by: Al | Oct 27, 2005 10:34:45 AM

"The difference between the two, I think, is that Duncan is a post player and Garnett really isn't."


And since no one has yet figured out how to build a championship team around a big man on the perimeter, fans of Garnett and Nowitzki are probably in for some more disappointment.

(Rasheed on Detroit doesn't count since that team revolved around Rip and Chauncey rather than Rasheed.)

Posted by: Petey | Oct 27, 2005 11:27:55 AM

The most impressive thing about the Pistons teams (both this version and the '89-'90 version) is that they had no dominant post player. That's extremely rare for a non-Jordan championship team. If you think about it, the other teams that have won in the modern NBA era have had post players like Duncan, Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem, McHale, Parish, and Moses Malone - HOF'ers all.

Posted by: Al | Oct 27, 2005 11:41:16 AM

The LB PIstons squad singularity goes even deeper than that.

Both the Zeke Pistons and the MJ Bulls at least had seriously dominant guards to lead their attack. The Iverson team that made it to the finals looked like those teams. But the LB Pistons had no dominant player at any position, and still managed to pull it off once, and would've pulled it off twice if Rasheed hadn't blown his cover of Horry.

So the rules are that you can win the championship if you meet any one of these conditions:

- You have a dominant post player
- You have a really dominant perimeter guard
- You have a freakish grab bag coached by Larry Brown

But a team with a dominant (and fun to watch) 6'11'' perimeter player like Garnett or Nowitzki seems to be the odd man out.

Posted by: Petey | Oct 27, 2005 12:15:37 PM

And if you're still not seeing Houston, imagine Yao/McGrady as Parish-McHale/Bird or Malone/Erving...

Posted by: Petey | Oct 27, 2005 12:18:27 PM

Yao hasn't yet convinced me that he is Parish, McHale, or Moses Malone. He could be - he's shown flashes. But I'm not there yet.

Posted by: Al | Oct 27, 2005 1:06:46 PM

It's a team sport, y'know. Individual players don't win or lose anything.

Maybe so, but great individual players can and do make their teammates better.

And, of course, the lack of a championship was the big knock on Michael Jordan for his first seven years in the league.

In my view this seven year "knock" was justified, until Jordan brought home a banner. It's all about the rings. Everything else is just stats. Which is why Russell and Wilt don't even belong in the same sentence. The former made the good players around him great. The latter hogged the ball.

Posted by: P.B. Almeida | Oct 29, 2005 10:45:38 AM

"It's also worth noting this about Tim Duncan. In 2004-05 he average 20.3 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.6 blocks, and 0.7 steals per game. In every metric except blocks, that was his worst season ever."

In every metric except blocks and winning the NBA title. When Duncan isn't carrying the team, it's usually a sign that the Spurs are playing pretty well. I don't know how many times last season the Spurs put the opposition away early and Duncan spent a great deal of the second half on the bench. Moreover, late in the season, Duncan was coming back from an ankle injury. With his elevation and mobility limited, Duncan did other things, namely pass out of the paint. I think Duncan and the Spurs would be thrilled to see him put up numbers similar to last years, sans ankle injury, of course.

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